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Mâcon vs Saint-Louis Neuweg — Coupe de France 2018

Mâcon
Mâcon
Pens
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Saint-Louis Neuweg
Saint-Louis Neuwegadvanced
2/21/2021Coupe de FranceCoupe de France · Round of 64Complexe Champlevert - Terrain Pierre Guerin

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Mâcon30%
×Draw25%
Saint-Louis Neuweg45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mâcon
1.25
Saint-Louis Neuweg
1.58

Saint-Louis Neuweg creates 26% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 4 away

creates per match

Mâcon
1.00
Saint-Louis Neuweg
1.50

allows per match

Mâcon
1.67
Saint-Louis Neuweg
1.50

finishing

Mâcon+0.00on par
Saint-Louis Neuweg+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mâcon ↓

Saint-Louis Neuweg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Mâcon or draw
55%
Mâcon or Saint-Louis Neuweg
75%
Draw or Saint-Louis Neuweg
70%

Winning margin

Mâcon wins by 2+
13%
Saint-Louis Neuweg wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Mâcon 1+ goals
71%
Mâcon 2+ goals
36%
Mâcon 3+ goals
13%
Saint-Louis Neuweg 1+ goals
79%
Saint-Louis Neuweg 2+ goals
47%
Saint-Louis Neuweg 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Mâcon (draw refunded)
40%
Saint-Louis Neuweg (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mâcon at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

Saint-Louis Neuweg away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mâcon attack 1.00 + Saint-Louis Neuweg defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.25

Saint-Louis Neuweg attack 1.50 + Mâcon defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Mâcon scores more
30%
level
25%
Saint-Louis Neuweg scores more
45%

Saint-Louis Neuweg at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Saint-Louis Neuweg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Coupe de France: Mâcon 0–0 Saint-Louis Neuweg

Mâcon and Saint-Louis Neuweg drew 0-0 in Coupe de France on February 21, 2021.

The match was played at Complexe Champlevert - Terrain Pierre Guerin in Mâcon.