Dijon 1–1 Arles: Result & Stats | Ligue 2

Dijon

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Arles

J. Gastien 42'

J. Cardy 90+2'

3/28/2014

Ligue 2 · Round 30Stade Gaston Gérard

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

Dijon51%

×Draw26%

Arles22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DijonExpected goals in this matchArles

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

0.87

Dijon

1.48

Arles

0.87

Dijon creates 70% more chances

Season form · 133 home / 76 away

1.53

creates per match

0.78

0.96

allows per match

1.43

creates per match

Dijon

1.53

Arles

0.78

allows per match

Dijon

0.96

Arles

1.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dijon+0.00on par

Arles+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dijon ↓

Arles →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–112%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Dijon or draw

78%

Dijon or Arles

74%

Draw or Arles

49%

Winning margin

Dijon wins by 2+

26%

Arles wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Dijon 1+ goals

77%

Dijon 2+ goals

43%

Dijon 3+ goals

19%

Arles 1+ goals

58%

Arles 2+ goals

22%

Arles 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Dijon (draw refunded)

70%

Arles (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dijon at home — creates 1.53, concedes 0.96 · 133 matches

Arles away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.43 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dijon attack 1.53 + Arles defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.48

Arles attack 0.78 + Dijon defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Dijon scores more

51%

level

26%

Arles scores more

22%

Dijon at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Dijon will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

42'

J. Gastien

56'

J. Mendes← Rafaël Dias

67'

Mohamed El Gabbas← J. Delclos

80'

B. Babit← L. Diony

83'

R. Philippoteaux← R. Amalfitano

88'

J. Marié← J. Gastien

90+2'

J. Cardy

Dijon

Arles

1

18

13

6

8

⚽

Cardy

9

▼

5

20

12

22

10

▼

30

27

19

25

6

15

23

22

⚽

▼

Gastien

20

▼

Amalfitan

11

Tavares

9

▼

Diony

80'▲B. Babit←▼L. Diony

83'▲R. Philippoteaux←▼R. Amalfitano

88'▲J. Marié←▼J. Gastien

Dijon substitutes

17Babit29Philippoteaux14Marié1Perraud5Diallo

56'▲J. Mendes←▼Rafaël Dias

67'▲Mohamed El Gabbas←▼J. Delclos

Arles substitutes

15Mendes17Gabbas21Gigot30Yattara33Medjelled

Ligue 2: Dijon 1–1 Arles

Dijon and Arles drew 1-1 in Ligue 2 on March 28, 2014.

Goals: J. Gastien (42'), J. Cardy (90+2').

The match was played at Stade Gaston Gérard in Dijon.

Dijon vs Arles — Ligue 2 2010

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Ligue 2: Dijon 1–1 Arles