Machine Sazi FC 1–1 Sepidrood Rasht: Result & Stats

Machine Sazi FC

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Sepidrood Rasht

8/10/2018

Persian Gulf Pro League · Round 3Bonyan Diesel Stadium (Tabrīz (Tabriz))

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Machine Sazi FC41%

×Draw29%

Sepidrood Rasht29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Machine Sazi FCExpected goals in this matchSepidrood Rasht

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.18

0.95

Machine Sazi FC

1.18

Sepidrood Rasht

0.95

Machine Sazi FC creates 24% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 15 away

0.82

creates per match

0.67

1.22

allows per match

1.53

creates per match

Machine Sazi FC

0.82

Sepidrood Rasht

0.67

allows per match

Machine Sazi FC

1.22

Sepidrood Rasht

1.53

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Machine Sazi FC+0.00on par

Sepidrood Rasht+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Machine Sazi FC ↓

Sepidrood Rasht →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Machine Sazi FC or draw

71%

Machine Sazi FC or Sepidrood Rasht

71%

Draw or Sepidrood Rasht

59%

Winning margin

Machine Sazi FC wins by 2+

18%

Sepidrood Rasht wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Machine Sazi FC 1+ goals

69%

Machine Sazi FC 2+ goals

33%

Machine Sazi FC 3+ goals

12%

Sepidrood Rasht 1+ goals

61%

Sepidrood Rasht 2+ goals

25%

Sepidrood Rasht 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Machine Sazi FC (draw refunded)

58%

Sepidrood Rasht (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Machine Sazi FC at home — creates 0.82, concedes 1.22 · 45 matches

Sepidrood Rasht away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.53 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Machine Sazi FC attack 0.82 + Sepidrood Rasht defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.18

Sepidrood Rasht attack 0.67 + Machine Sazi FC defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Machine Sazi FC scores more

41%

level

29%

Sepidrood Rasht scores more

29%

Machine Sazi FC at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Machine Sazi FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff