Machine Sazi FC 3–3 Sepahan FC: Result & Stats

Machine Sazi FC

FT

3 – 3

HT: 1 – 3

Sepahan FC

12/29/2020

Persian Gulf Pro League · Round 10Bonyan Diesel Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Machine Sazi FC24%

×Draw29%

Sepahan FC48%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Machine Sazi FCExpected goals in this matchSepahan FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.82

1.30

Machine Sazi FC

0.82

Sepahan FC

1.30

Sepahan FC creates 59% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 115 away

0.82

creates per match

1.38

1.22

allows per match

0.82

creates per match

Machine Sazi FC

0.82

Sepahan FC

1.38

allows per match

Machine Sazi FC

1.22

Sepahan FC

0.82

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Machine Sazi FC+0.00on par

Sepahan FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Machine Sazi FC ↓

Sepahan FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–116%

0–210%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–04%

2–15%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Machine Sazi FC or draw

52%

Machine Sazi FC or Sepahan FC

71%

Draw or Sepahan FC

76%

Winning margin

Machine Sazi FC wins by 2+

7%

Sepahan FC wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Machine Sazi FC 1+ goals

56%

Machine Sazi FC 2+ goals

20%

Machine Sazi FC 3+ goals

5%

Sepahan FC 1+ goals

73%

Sepahan FC 2+ goals

37%

Sepahan FC 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Machine Sazi FC (draw refunded)

33%

Sepahan FC (draw refunded)

67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Machine Sazi FC at home — creates 0.82, concedes 1.22 · 45 matches

Sepahan FC away — creates 1.38, concedes 0.82 · 115 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Machine Sazi FC attack 0.82 + Sepahan FC defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.82

Sepahan FC attack 1.38 + Machine Sazi FC defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Machine Sazi FC scores more

24%

level

29%

Sepahan FC scores more

48%

Sepahan FC at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Sepahan FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff