Machine Sazi FC 1–1 Mes Rafsanjan: Result & Stats

Machine Sazi FC

FT

1 – 1

Mes Rafsanjan

4/17/2018

Azadegan League · Round 32Bagh Shomal Stadium (Takhti) (Tabrīz (Tabriz))

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Machine Sazi FC22%

×Draw23%

Mes Rafsanjan55%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Machine Sazi FCExpected goals in this matchMes Rafsanjan

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.04

1.80

Machine Sazi FC

1.04

Mes Rafsanjan

1.80

Mes Rafsanjan creates 73% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 15 away

0.95

creates per match

1.60

2.00

allows per match

1.13

creates per match

Machine Sazi FC

0.95

Mes Rafsanjan

1.60

allows per match

Machine Sazi FC

2.00

Mes Rafsanjan

1.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Machine Sazi FC+0.00on par

Mes Rafsanjan+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Machine Sazi FC ↓

Mes Rafsanjan →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–111%

0–29%

0–36%

0–43%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Machine Sazi FC or draw

45%

Machine Sazi FC or Mes Rafsanjan

77%

Draw or Mes Rafsanjan

78%

Winning margin

Machine Sazi FC wins by 2+

8%

Mes Rafsanjan wins by 2+

31%

Team goals

Machine Sazi FC 1+ goals

65%

Machine Sazi FC 2+ goals

28%

Machine Sazi FC 3+ goals

9%

Mes Rafsanjan 1+ goals

83%

Mes Rafsanjan 2+ goals

54%

Mes Rafsanjan 3+ goals

27%

Draw no bet

Machine Sazi FC (draw refunded)

28%

Mes Rafsanjan (draw refunded)

72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Machine Sazi FC at home — creates 0.95, concedes 2.00 · 20 matches

Mes Rafsanjan away — creates 1.60, concedes 1.13 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Machine Sazi FC attack 0.95 + Mes Rafsanjan defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.04

Mes Rafsanjan attack 1.60 + Machine Sazi FC defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Machine Sazi FC scores more

22%

level

23%

Mes Rafsanjan scores more

55%

Mes Rafsanjan at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Mes Rafsanjan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff