Machine Sazi FC 0–1 Gol Gohar: Result & Stats

Machine Sazi FC

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Gol Gohar

11/30/2020

Persian Gulf Pro League · Round 4Bonyan Diesel Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Machine Sazi FC29%

×Draw32%

Gol Gohar39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Machine Sazi FCExpected goals in this matchGol Gohar

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.86

1.05

Machine Sazi FC

0.86

Gol Gohar

1.05

Gol Gohar creates 22% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 101 away

0.82

creates per match

0.88

1.22

allows per match

0.91

creates per match

Machine Sazi FC

0.82

Gol Gohar

0.88

allows per match

Machine Sazi FC

1.22

Gol Gohar

0.91

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Machine Sazi FC+0.00on par

Gol Gohar+0.00on par

Total goals

Under70
Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Machine Sazi FC ↓

Gol Gohar →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–116%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–16%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

57%43%2.5

30%70%3.5

13%87%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Machine Sazi FC or draw

61%

Machine Sazi FC or Gol Gohar

68%

Draw or Gol Gohar

71%

Winning margin

Machine Sazi FC wins by 2+

10%

Gol Gohar wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Machine Sazi FC 1+ goals

58%

Machine Sazi FC 2+ goals

21%

Machine Sazi FC 3+ goals

6%

Gol Gohar 1+ goals

65%

Gol Gohar 2+ goals

28%

Gol Gohar 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Machine Sazi FC (draw refunded)

43%

Gol Gohar (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

24%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Machine Sazi FC at home — creates 0.82, concedes 1.22 · 45 matches

Gol Gohar away — creates 0.88, concedes 0.91 · 101 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Machine Sazi FC attack 0.82 + Gol Gohar defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.86

Gol Gohar attack 0.88 + Machine Sazi FC defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Machine Sazi FC scores more

29%

level

32%

Gol Gohar scores more

39%

Gol Gohar at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Gol Gohar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff