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Machine Sazi FC vs Esteghlal FC — Persian Gulf Pro League 2025

Machine Sazi FC
Machine Sazi FC
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Esteghlal FC
Esteghlal FC
O. Noorafkan 90+3'
M. Haghdoust 77'
Ali Ghorbani 43'
2/1/2017Persian Gulf Pro LeaguePersian Gulf Pro League · Round 20Bagh Shomal Stadium (Takhti) (Tabrīz (Tabriz))

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Machine Sazi FC22%
×Draw27%
Esteghlal FC51%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Machine Sazi FC
0.83
Esteghlal FC
1.42

Esteghlal FC creates 71% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 99 away

creates per match

Machine Sazi FC
0.90
Esteghlal FC
1.31

allows per match

Machine Sazi FC
1.52
Esteghlal FC
0.76

finishing

Machine Sazi FC+0.00on par
Esteghlal FC+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Machine Sazi FC ↓

Esteghlal FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–115%
0–211%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–15%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Machine Sazi FC or draw
49%
Machine Sazi FC or Esteghlal FC
73%
Draw or Esteghlal FC
78%

Winning margin

Machine Sazi FC wins by 2+
7%
Esteghlal FC wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Machine Sazi FC 1+ goals
56%
Machine Sazi FC 2+ goals
20%
Machine Sazi FC 3+ goals
5%
Esteghlal FC 1+ goals
76%
Esteghlal FC 2+ goals
41%
Esteghlal FC 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Machine Sazi FC (draw refunded)
30%
Esteghlal FC (draw refunded)
70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Machine Sazi FC at home — creates 0.90, concedes 1.52 · 31 matches

Esteghlal FC away — creates 1.31, concedes 0.76 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Machine Sazi FC attack 0.90 + Esteghlal FC defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.83

Esteghlal FC attack 1.31 + Machine Sazi FC defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Machine Sazi FC scores more
22%
level
27%
Esteghlal FC scores more
51%

Esteghlal FC at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Esteghlal FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

43'
Ali Ghorbani
77'
M. Haghdoust
90+3'
O. Noorafkan

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Persian Gulf Pro League: Machine Sazi FC 0–3 Esteghlal FC

Esteghlal FC beat Machine Sazi FC 3-0 in Persian Gulf Pro League on February 1, 2017.

Goals: Ali Ghorbani (43'), M. Haghdoust (77'), O. Noorafkan (90+3').

The match was played at Bagh Shomal Stadium (Takhti) (Tabrīz (Tabriz)).