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Machida Zelvia vs V-varen Nagasaki — J1 League 2018

Machida Zelvia
Machida Zelvia
Preview
05:00
V-varen Nagasaki
V-varen Nagasaki
11/21/2026J1 LeagueJ1 League · Round 15Machida GION Stadium
Big match
49%
Machida Zelvia
model favours
49%26%25%

Machida Zelvia are unbeaten in 9 straight

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
53%
under 2.5 goals
50%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Machida Zelvia49%
×Draw26%
V-varen Nagasaki25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Machida Zelvia
1.54
V-varen Nagasaki
1.02

Machida Zelvia creates 51% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 27 away

creates per match

Machida Zelvia
1.41
V-varen Nagasaki
1.04

allows per match

Machida Zelvia
1.00
V-varen Nagasaki
1.67

finishing

Machida Zelvia+0.00on par
V-varen Nagasaki+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Machida Zelvia ↓

V-varen Nagasaki →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Machida Zelvia or draw
75%
Machida Zelvia or V-varen Nagasaki
74%
Draw or V-varen Nagasaki
51%

Winning margin

Machida Zelvia wins by 2+
25%
V-varen Nagasaki wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Machida Zelvia 1+ goals
79%
Machida Zelvia 2+ goals
45%
Machida Zelvia 3+ goals
20%
V-varen Nagasaki 1+ goals
64%
V-varen Nagasaki 2+ goals
27%
V-varen Nagasaki 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Machida Zelvia (draw refunded)
66%
V-varen Nagasaki (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Machida Zelvia at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.00 · 44 matches

V-varen Nagasaki away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.67 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Machida Zelvia attack 1.41 + V-varen Nagasaki defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.54

V-varen Nagasaki attack 1.04 + Machida Zelvia defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Machida Zelvia scores more
49%
level
26%
V-varen Nagasaki scores more
25%

Machida Zelvia at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Machida Zelvia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • 70% of Machida Zelvia’s matches stay under 2.5 goals
  • V-varen Nagasaki win just 10% against the top half (vs 47% against the bottom)
  • Both teams scored in 7 of the last 10 meetings
  • 35% of Machida Zelvia’s goals come after the 75th minute
  • Their last 10 meetings averaged 3.9 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Zelvia
DDWDD
Nagasaki
LWWLD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Machida Zelvia face V-varen Nagasaki (J1 League)

J1 League returns with Machida Zelvia hosting V-varen Nagasaki. Match starts November 21, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Machida Zelvia host V-varen Nagasaki at Machida GION Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.