Machida Zelvia 1–1 V-varen Nagasaki: Result & Stats

Machida Zelvia

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

V-varen Nagasaki

9/23/2020

J2 League · Round 21Machida Gion Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 126+ matches

Machida Zelvia37%

×Draw27%

V-varen Nagasaki37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Machida ZelviaExpected goals in this matchV-varen Nagasaki

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

Machida Zelvia

1.29

V-varen Nagasaki

1.29

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 126 home / 143 away

1.32

creates per match

1.48

1.10

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Machida Zelvia

1.32

V-varen Nagasaki

1.48

allows per match

Machida Zelvia

1.10

V-varen Nagasaki

1.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Machida Zelvia+0.00on par

V-varen Nagasaki+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Machida Zelvia ↓

V-varen Nagasaki →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Machida Zelvia or draw

63%

Machida Zelvia or V-varen Nagasaki

73%

Draw or V-varen Nagasaki

63%

Winning margin

Machida Zelvia wins by 2+

16%

V-varen Nagasaki wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Machida Zelvia 1+ goals

72%

Machida Zelvia 2+ goals

37%

Machida Zelvia 3+ goals

14%

V-varen Nagasaki 1+ goals

72%

V-varen Nagasaki 2+ goals

37%

V-varen Nagasaki 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Machida Zelvia (draw refunded)

50%

V-varen Nagasaki (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Machida Zelvia at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.10 · 126 matches

V-varen Nagasaki away — creates 1.48, concedes 1.25 · 143 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Machida Zelvia attack 1.32 + V-varen Nagasaki defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.29

V-varen Nagasaki attack 1.48 + Machida Zelvia defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Machida Zelvia scores more

37%

level

27%

V-varen Nagasaki scores more

37%

Machida Zelvia at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Machida Zelvia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff