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Machida Zelvia vs Melbourne City — AFC Champions League 2018

Machida Zelvia
Machida Zelvia
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Melbourne City
Melbourne City
11/4/2025AFC Champions LeagueAFC Champions League · League Phase East - 4Machida GION Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Machida Zelvia37%
×Draw27%
Melbourne City36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Machida Zelvia
1.29
Melbourne City
1.28

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 7 home / 10 away

creates per match

Machida Zelvia
1.57
Melbourne City
1.70

allows per match

Machida Zelvia
0.86
Melbourne City
1.00

finishing

Machida Zelvia+0.00on par
Melbourne City+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Machida Zelvia ↓

Melbourne City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Machida Zelvia or draw
64%
Machida Zelvia or Melbourne City
73%
Draw or Melbourne City
63%

Winning margin

Machida Zelvia wins by 2+
16%
Melbourne City wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Machida Zelvia 1+ goals
72%
Machida Zelvia 2+ goals
37%
Machida Zelvia 3+ goals
14%
Melbourne City 1+ goals
72%
Melbourne City 2+ goals
37%
Melbourne City 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Machida Zelvia (draw refunded)
50%
Melbourne City (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Machida Zelvia at home — creates 1.57, concedes 0.86 · 7 matches

Melbourne City away — creates 1.70, concedes 1.00 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Machida Zelvia attack 1.57 + Melbourne City defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.29

Melbourne City attack 1.70 + Machida Zelvia defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Machida Zelvia scores more
37%
level
27%
Melbourne City scores more
36%

Machida Zelvia at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Machida Zelvia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Machida Zelvia vs Melbourne City

Melbourne City beat Machida Zelvia 2-1 in AFC Champions League on November 4, 2025.

The match was played at Machida GION Stadium in Machida.