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Machida Zelvia vs Iwaki — J2 League 2018

Machida Zelvia
Machida Zelvia
FT
2 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Iwaki
Iwaki
10/1/2023J2 LeagueJ2 League · Round 37Machida Gion Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Machida Zelvia38%
×Draw27%
Iwaki35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Machida Zelvia
1.29
Iwaki
1.21

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 126 home / 59 away

creates per match

Machida Zelvia
1.32
Iwaki
1.32

allows per match

Machida Zelvia
1.10
Iwaki
1.25

finishing

Machida Zelvia+0.00on par
Iwaki+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Machida Zelvia ↓

Iwaki →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Machida Zelvia or draw
65%
Machida Zelvia or Iwaki
73%
Draw or Iwaki
62%

Winning margin

Machida Zelvia wins by 2+
17%
Iwaki wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Machida Zelvia 1+ goals
72%
Machida Zelvia 2+ goals
37%
Machida Zelvia 3+ goals
14%
Iwaki 1+ goals
70%
Iwaki 2+ goals
34%
Iwaki 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Machida Zelvia (draw refunded)
53%
Iwaki (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Machida Zelvia at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.10 · 126 matches

Iwaki away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.25 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Machida Zelvia attack 1.32 + Iwaki defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.29

Iwaki attack 1.32 + Machida Zelvia defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Machida Zelvia scores more
38%
level
27%
Iwaki scores more
35%

Machida Zelvia at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Machida Zelvia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

J2 League: Machida Zelvia 2–3 Iwaki

Iwaki beat Machida Zelvia 3-2 in J2 League on October 1, 2023.

The match was played at Machida Gion Stadium in Tokyo.