Machida Zelvia 1–0 Fujieda MYFC: Result & Stats

Machida Zelvia

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Fujieda MYFC

4/2/2023

J2 League · Round 7Machida Gion Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Machida Zelvia46%

×Draw26%

Fujieda MYFC28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Machida ZelviaExpected goals in this matchFujieda MYFC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.10

Machida Zelvia

1.50

Fujieda MYFC

1.10

Machida Zelvia creates 36% more chances

Season form · 127 home / 59 away

1.31

creates per match

1.12

1.09

allows per match

1.68

creates per match

Machida Zelvia

1.31

Fujieda MYFC

1.12

allows per match

Machida Zelvia

1.09

Fujieda MYFC

1.68

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Machida Zelvia+0.00on par

Fujieda MYFC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Machida Zelvia ↓

Fujieda MYFC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Machida Zelvia or draw

72%

Machida Zelvia or Fujieda MYFC

74%

Draw or Fujieda MYFC

54%

Winning margin

Machida Zelvia wins by 2+

23%

Fujieda MYFC wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Machida Zelvia 1+ goals

78%

Machida Zelvia 2+ goals

44%

Machida Zelvia 3+ goals

19%

Fujieda MYFC 1+ goals

67%

Fujieda MYFC 2+ goals

30%

Fujieda MYFC 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Machida Zelvia (draw refunded)

63%

Fujieda MYFC (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Machida Zelvia at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.09 · 127 matches

Fujieda MYFC away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.68 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Machida Zelvia attack 1.31 + Fujieda MYFC defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.50

Fujieda MYFC attack 1.12 + Machida Zelvia defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Machida Zelvia scores more

46%

level

26%

Fujieda MYFC scores more

28%

Machida Zelvia at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Machida Zelvia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff