Machida Zelvia vs Fagiano Okayama

Machida Zelvia

Preview

05:00

Fagiano Okayama

12/6/2026

J1 League · Round 18Machida GION Stadium

Big match

46%

Machida Zelvia

model favours

46%26%27%

Machida Zelvia are unbeaten in 9 straight

brightest fact of this match

1–1

likely score

55%

under 2.5 goals

49%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Machida Zelvia46%

×Draw26%

Fagiano Okayama27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Machida ZelviaExpected goals in this matchFagiano Okayama

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

1.04

Machida Zelvia

1.44

Fagiano Okayama

1.04

Machida Zelvia creates 38% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 24 away

1.41

creates per match

1.08

1.00

allows per match

1.46

creates per match

Machida Zelvia

1.41

Fagiano Okayama

1.08

allows per match

Machida Zelvia

1.00

Fagiano Okayama

1.46

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Machida Zelvia+0.00on par

Fagiano Okayama+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Machida Zelvia ↓

Fagiano Okayama →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Machida Zelvia or draw

73%

Machida Zelvia or Fagiano Okayama

74%

Draw or Fagiano Okayama

54%

Winning margin

Machida Zelvia wins by 2+

23%

Fagiano Okayama wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Machida Zelvia 1+ goals

76%

Machida Zelvia 2+ goals

42%

Machida Zelvia 3+ goals

18%

Fagiano Okayama 1+ goals

65%

Fagiano Okayama 2+ goals

28%

Fagiano Okayama 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Machida Zelvia (draw refunded)

63%

Fagiano Okayama (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Machida Zelvia at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.00 · 44 matches

Fagiano Okayama away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.46 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Machida Zelvia attack 1.41 + Fagiano Okayama defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.44

Fagiano Okayama attack 1.08 + Machida Zelvia defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Machida Zelvia scores more

46%

level

26%

Fagiano Okayama scores more

27%

Machida Zelvia at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Machida Zelvia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

Fagiano Okayama score first in only 33% of matches
Fagiano Okayama raise their game against the top half — 39% wins vs the upper half, only 26% vs the lower
70% of Machida Zelvia’s matches stay under 2.5 goals
Style contrast — Machida Zelvia play Defensively solid, Fagiano Okayama Direct / counter-attacking
35% of Machida Zelvia’s goals come after the 75th minute