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Machida Zelvia vs Fagiano Okayama — J1 League 2018

Machida Zelvia
Machida Zelvia
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Fagiano Okayama
Fagiano Okayama
9/27/2025J1 LeagueJ1 League · Round 32Machida GION Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Machida Zelvia46%
×Draw26%
Fagiano Okayama27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Machida Zelvia
1.44
Fagiano Okayama
1.04

Machida Zelvia creates 38% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 24 away

creates per match

Machida Zelvia
1.41
Fagiano Okayama
1.08

allows per match

Machida Zelvia
1.00
Fagiano Okayama
1.46

finishing

Machida Zelvia+0.00on par
Fagiano Okayama+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Machida Zelvia ↓

Fagiano Okayama →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Machida Zelvia or draw
73%
Machida Zelvia or Fagiano Okayama
74%
Draw or Fagiano Okayama
54%

Winning margin

Machida Zelvia wins by 2+
23%
Fagiano Okayama wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Machida Zelvia 1+ goals
76%
Machida Zelvia 2+ goals
42%
Machida Zelvia 3+ goals
18%
Fagiano Okayama 1+ goals
65%
Fagiano Okayama 2+ goals
28%
Fagiano Okayama 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Machida Zelvia (draw refunded)
63%
Fagiano Okayama (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Machida Zelvia at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.00 · 44 matches

Fagiano Okayama away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.46 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Machida Zelvia attack 1.41 + Fagiano Okayama defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.44

Fagiano Okayama attack 1.08 + Machida Zelvia defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Machida Zelvia scores more
46%
level
26%
Fagiano Okayama scores more
27%

Machida Zelvia at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Machida Zelvia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Machida Zelvia vs Fagiano Okayama

Machida Zelvia beat Fagiano Okayama 1-0 in J1 League on September 27, 2025.

The match was played at Machida GION Stadium in Machida.