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Machida Zelvia vs Ehime FC — J2 League 2018

Machida Zelvia
Machida Zelvia
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Ehime FC
Ehime FC
6/2/2018J2 LeagueJ2 League · Round 17Machida Athletic Stadium (Tokyo)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 123+ matches

Machida Zelvia47%
×Draw26%
Ehime FC27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Machida Zelvia
1.48
Ehime FC
1.04

Machida Zelvia creates 42% more chances

Season form · 126 home / 123 away

creates per match

Machida Zelvia
1.32
Ehime FC
0.98

allows per match

Machida Zelvia
1.10
Ehime FC
1.64

finishing

Machida Zelvia+0.00on par
Ehime FC+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Machida Zelvia ↓

Ehime FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Machida Zelvia or draw
73%
Machida Zelvia or Ehime FC
74%
Draw or Ehime FC
53%

Winning margin

Machida Zelvia wins by 2+
24%
Ehime FC wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Machida Zelvia 1+ goals
77%
Machida Zelvia 2+ goals
43%
Machida Zelvia 3+ goals
19%
Ehime FC 1+ goals
65%
Ehime FC 2+ goals
28%
Ehime FC 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Machida Zelvia (draw refunded)
64%
Ehime FC (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Machida Zelvia at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.10 · 126 matches

Ehime FC away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.64 · 123 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Machida Zelvia attack 1.32 + Ehime FC defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.48

Ehime FC attack 0.98 + Machida Zelvia defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Machida Zelvia scores more
47%
level
26%
Ehime FC scores more
27%

Machida Zelvia at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Machida Zelvia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

J2 League: Machida Zelvia 2–1 Ehime FC

Machida Zelvia beat Ehime FC 2-1 in J2 League on June 2, 2018.

The match was played at Machida Athletic Stadium (Tokyo).