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Machico vs Vila Real — Taça de Portugal 2018

Machico
Machico
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Vila Real
Vila Realadvanced
9/21/2025Taça de PortugalTaça de Portugal · Round of 128Estádio Municipal de Machico

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Machico27%
×Draw27%
Vila Real46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Machico
1.00
Vila Real
1.38

Vila Real creates 38% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 4 away

creates per match

Machico
1.00
Vila Real
1.00

allows per match

Machico
1.75
Vila Real
1.00

finishing

Machico+0.00on par
Vila Real+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Machico ↓

Vila Real →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–113%
0–29%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Machico or draw
54%
Machico or Vila Real
73%
Draw or Vila Real
73%

Winning margin

Machico wins by 2+
10%
Vila Real wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Machico 1+ goals
63%
Machico 2+ goals
26%
Machico 3+ goals
8%
Vila Real 1+ goals
75%
Vila Real 2+ goals
40%
Vila Real 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Machico (draw refunded)
37%
Vila Real (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Machico at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.75 · 4 matches

Vila Real away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Machico attack 1.00 + Vila Real defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.00

Vila Real attack 1.00 + Machico defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Machico scores more
27%
level
27%
Vila Real scores more
46%

Vila Real at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Vila Real will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Taça de Portugal: Machico 0–2 Vila Real

Vila Real beat Machico 2-0 in Taça de Portugal on September 21, 2025.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal de Machico in Machico (Madeira).