Machico 1–0 Boavista: Result & Stats

Machico

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Boavista

10/16/2022

Taça de Portugal · 3rd RoundEstádio Municipal de Machico

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Machico25%

×Draw24%

Boavista50%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MachicoExpected goals in this matchBoavista

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.13

1.69

Machico

1.13

Boavista

1.69

Boavista creates 50% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 8 away

1.00

creates per match

1.63

1.75

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Machico

1.00

Boavista

1.63

allows per match

Machico

1.75

Boavista

1.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Machico+0.00on par

Boavista+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Machico ↓

Boavista →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–110%

0–29%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–210%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–16%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Machico or draw

50%

Machico or Boavista

76%

Draw or Boavista

75%

Winning margin

Machico wins by 2+

10%

Boavista wins by 2+

27%

Team goals

Machico 1+ goals

68%

Machico 2+ goals

31%

Machico 3+ goals

11%

Boavista 1+ goals

82%

Boavista 2+ goals

50%

Boavista 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Machico (draw refunded)

34%

Boavista (draw refunded)

66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Machico at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.75 · 4 matches

Boavista away — creates 1.63, concedes 1.25 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Machico attack 1.00 + Boavista defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.13

Boavista attack 1.63 + Machico defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Machico scores more

25%

level

24%

Boavista scores more

50%

Boavista at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Boavista will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff