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Machico vs Alverca — Taça de Portugal 2018

Machico
Machico
AET
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Alverca
Alverca
10/2/2022Taça de PortugalTaça de Portugal · 2nd RoundEstádio Municipal de Machico

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Machico29%
×Draw25%
Alverca46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Machico
1.20
Alverca
1.57

Alverca creates 31% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 5 away

creates per match

Machico
1.00
Alverca
1.40

allows per match

Machico
1.75
Alverca
1.40

finishing

Machico+0.00on par
Alverca+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Machico ↓

Alverca →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Machico or draw
54%
Machico or Alverca
75%
Draw or Alverca
71%

Winning margin

Machico wins by 2+
12%
Alverca wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Machico 1+ goals
70%
Machico 2+ goals
34%
Machico 3+ goals
12%
Alverca 1+ goals
79%
Alverca 2+ goals
46%
Alverca 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Machico (draw refunded)
39%
Alverca (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Machico at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.75 · 4 matches

Alverca away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.40 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Machico attack 1.00 + Alverca defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.20

Alverca attack 1.40 + Machico defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Machico scores more
29%
level
25%
Alverca scores more
46%

Alverca at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Alverca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Machico vs Alverca

Machico and Alverca drew 1-1 in Taça de Portugal on October 2, 2022.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal de Machico in Madeira.