Macclesfield 2–0 United of Manchester

Macclesfield

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

United of Manchester

D. Elliott 54'

D. Bughail-Mellor 11'

1/11/2025

League #59 · Northern - 27The Leasing.com Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Macclesfield58%

×Draw24%

United of Manchester18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MacclesfieldExpected goals in this matchUnited of Manchester

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.70

0.84

Macclesfield

1.70

United of Manchester

0.84

Macclesfield creates 102% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 9 away

1.40

creates per match

0.89

0.80

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Macclesfield

1.40

United of Manchester

0.89

allows per match

Macclesfield

0.80

United of Manchester

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Macclesfield+0.00on par

United of Manchester+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Macclesfield ↓

United of Manchester →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–111%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Macclesfield or draw

82%

Macclesfield or United of Manchester

76%

Draw or United of Manchester

42%

Winning margin

Macclesfield wins by 2+

32%

United of Manchester wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Macclesfield 1+ goals

82%

Macclesfield 2+ goals

51%

Macclesfield 3+ goals

24%

United of Manchester 1+ goals

57%

United of Manchester 2+ goals

21%

United of Manchester 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Macclesfield (draw refunded)

76%

United of Manchester (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Macclesfield at home — creates 1.40, concedes 0.80 · 5 matches

United of Manchester away — creates 0.89, concedes 2.00 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Macclesfield attack 1.40 + United of Manchester defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.70

United of Manchester attack 0.89 + Macclesfield defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Macclesfield scores more

58%

level

24%

United of Manchester scores more

18%

Macclesfield at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Macclesfield will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'

D. Bughail-Mellor

54'

D. Elliott

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff