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Macclesfield vs Swindon Town — League Two 2018

Macclesfield
Macclesfield
CANC
00:00
Swindon Town
Swindon Town
4/25/2020League TwoLeague Two · Round 46Moss Rose Ground

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Macclesfield37%
×Draw27%
Swindon Town36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Macclesfield
1.30
Swindon Town
1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 20 home / 139 away

creates per match

Macclesfield
1.15
Swindon Town
1.49

allows per match

Macclesfield
1.05
Swindon Town
1.45

finishing

Macclesfield+0.00on par
Swindon Town+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Macclesfield ↓

Swindon Town →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Macclesfield or draw
64%
Macclesfield or Swindon Town
73%
Draw or Swindon Town
63%

Winning margin

Macclesfield wins by 2+
17%
Swindon Town wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Macclesfield 1+ goals
73%
Macclesfield 2+ goals
37%
Macclesfield 3+ goals
14%
Swindon Town 1+ goals
72%
Swindon Town 2+ goals
36%
Swindon Town 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Macclesfield (draw refunded)
51%
Swindon Town (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Macclesfield at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.05 · 20 matches

Swindon Town away — creates 1.49, concedes 1.45 · 139 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Macclesfield attack 1.15 + Swindon Town defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.30

Swindon Town attack 1.49 + Macclesfield defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Macclesfield scores more
37%
level
27%
Swindon Town scores more
36%

Macclesfield at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Macclesfield will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Macclesfield vs Swindon Town — Match Preview

Macclesfield face Swindon Town on April 25, 2020 in this League Two fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Macclesfield host Swindon Town at Moss Rose Ground.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.