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Macclesfield vs Stevenage — League Two 2018

Macclesfield
Macclesfield
CANC
00:00
Stevenage
Stevenage
4/13/2020League TwoLeague Two · Round 44Moss Rose Ground

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Macclesfield42%
×Draw29%
Stevenage29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Macclesfield
1.19
Stevenage
0.93

Macclesfield creates 28% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 100 away

creates per match

Macclesfield
1.15
Stevenage
0.80

allows per match

Macclesfield
1.05
Stevenage
1.24

finishing

Macclesfield+0.00on par
Stevenage+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Macclesfield ↓

Stevenage →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Macclesfield or draw
71%
Macclesfield or Stevenage
71%
Draw or Stevenage
58%

Winning margin

Macclesfield wins by 2+
18%
Stevenage wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Macclesfield 1+ goals
70%
Macclesfield 2+ goals
33%
Macclesfield 3+ goals
12%
Stevenage 1+ goals
61%
Stevenage 2+ goals
24%
Stevenage 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Macclesfield (draw refunded)
59%
Stevenage (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Macclesfield at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.05 · 20 matches

Stevenage away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.24 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Macclesfield attack 1.15 + Stevenage defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.19

Stevenage attack 0.80 + Macclesfield defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Macclesfield scores more
42%
level
29%
Stevenage scores more
29%

Macclesfield at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Macclesfield will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Macclesfield vs Stevenage — Match Preview

Macclesfield face Stevenage on April 13, 2020 in this League Two fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Macclesfield host Stevenage at Moss Rose Ground.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.