Macclesfield 1–0 Cambridge United: Result & Stats

Macclesfield

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Cambridge United

A. Gnahoua 5'

1/4/2020

League Two · Round 26Moss Rose Ground

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

Macclesfield35%

×Draw28%

Cambridge United37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MacclesfieldExpected goals in this matchCambridge United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.16

1.20

Macclesfield

1.16

Cambridge United

1.20

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 41 home / 90 away

1.10

creates per match

1.13

1.27

allows per match

1.21

creates per match

Macclesfield

1.10

Cambridge United

1.13

allows per match

Macclesfield

1.27

Cambridge United

1.21

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Macclesfield+0.00on par

Cambridge United+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Macclesfield ↓

Cambridge United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Macclesfield or draw

63%

Macclesfield or Cambridge United

72%

Draw or Cambridge United

65%

Winning margin

Macclesfield wins by 2+

14%

Cambridge United wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Macclesfield 1+ goals

69%

Macclesfield 2+ goals

32%

Macclesfield 3+ goals

11%

Cambridge United 1+ goals

70%

Cambridge United 2+ goals

34%

Cambridge United 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Macclesfield (draw refunded)

49%

Cambridge United (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Macclesfield at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.27 · 41 matches

Cambridge United away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.21 · 90 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Macclesfield attack 1.10 + Cambridge United defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.16

Cambridge United attack 1.13 + Macclesfield defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Macclesfield scores more

35%

level

28%

Cambridge United scores more

37%

Cambridge United at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Cambridge United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4

G. Taft

Cambridge United · D

7.9

Match Events

5'

46'

58'

58'

77'

N. Cameron← C. OKeefe

78'

Luke Hannant

80'

A. Dallas← L. ONeil

80'

J. Williams← D. Jones

88'

J. Blyth← J. Ironside

90+4'

B. Stephens← A. Gnahoua

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MacclesfieldCambridge

Overview

55%Possession45%

15Total Shots14

6Corners1

10Fouls16

Shots

15Total Shots14

3On Target4

7Off Target7

5Blocked3

5Inside Box6

10Outside Box8

Passing

55%Possession45%

397Total Passes324

251Accurate Passes192

63%Pass Accuracy59%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

Discipline

10Fouls16

1Yellow Cards2

4Offsides0

Match Recap: Macclesfield vs Cambridge United

Macclesfield beat Cambridge United 1-0 in League Two on January 4, 2020.

Goals: A. Gnahoua (5').

Macclesfield controlled possession (55%) and registered 15 shots to 14.

The match was played at Moss Rose Ground in Macclesfield, Cheshire.

Macclesfield vs Cambridge United — League Two 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Macclesfield vs Cambridge United