Maccabi Yavne 2–0 Shimshon Kafr Qasim

Maccabi Yavne

2 – 0

Shimshon Kafr Qasim

9/2/2022

State Cup · 5th Round (Liga Alef)Yavne Municipal Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Maccabi Yavne89%

×Draw8%

Shimshon Kafr Qasim3%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Maccabi YavneExpected goals in this matchShimshon Kafr Qasim

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.31

0.50

Maccabi Yavne

3.31

Shimshon Kafr Qasim

0.50

Maccabi Yavne creates 562% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 3 away

3.30

creates per match

0.00

1.00

allows per match

3.33

creates per match

Maccabi Yavne

3.30

Shimshon Kafr Qasim

0.00

allows per match

Maccabi Yavne

1.00

Shimshon Kafr Qasim

3.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Maccabi Yavne+0.00on par

Shimshon Kafr Qasim+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Maccabi Yavne ↓

Shimshon Kafr Qasim →

0–02%

0–11%

0–20%

0–30%

0–40%

1–08%

1–14%

1–21%

1–30%

1–40%

2–013%

2–16%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3–014%

3–17%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4–012%

4–16%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (14%) · grid covers 80% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

72%28%3.5

50%50%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

Maccabi Yavne or draw

97%

Maccabi Yavne or Shimshon Kafr Qasim

92%

Draw or Shimshon Kafr Qasim

11%

Winning margin

Maccabi Yavne wins by 2+

73%

Shimshon Kafr Qasim wins by 2+

Team goals

Maccabi Yavne 1+ goals

96%

Maccabi Yavne 2+ goals

83%

Maccabi Yavne 3+ goals

62%

Shimshon Kafr Qasim 1+ goals

39%

Shimshon Kafr Qasim 2+ goals

Shimshon Kafr Qasim 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Maccabi Yavne (draw refunded)

97%

Shimshon Kafr Qasim (draw refunded)

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Maccabi Yavne at home — creates 3.30, concedes 1.00 · 10 matches

Shimshon Kafr Qasim away — creates 0.00, concedes 3.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Maccabi Yavne attack 3.30 + Shimshon Kafr Qasim defence 3.33 → ÷2 → 3.31

Shimshon Kafr Qasim attack 0.00 + Maccabi Yavne defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 89%?"

Maccabi Yavne scores more

89%

level

Shimshon Kafr Qasim scores more

Maccabi Yavne at 89% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 89% does not mean "Maccabi Yavne will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff