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Maccabi Yavne vs Hapoel Ashkelon — State Cup 2019

Maccabi Yavne
Maccabi Yavne
FT
2 – 3
Hapoel Ashkelon
Hapoel Ashkelon
11/23/2020State CupState Cup · 2nd RoundYavne Municipal Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Maccabi Yavne68%
×Draw16%
Hapoel Ashkelon16%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Maccabi Yavne
2.90
Hapoel Ashkelon
1.38

Maccabi Yavne creates 110% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 4 away

creates per match

Maccabi Yavne
3.30
Hapoel Ashkelon
1.75

allows per match

Maccabi Yavne
1.00
Hapoel Ashkelon
2.50

finishing

Maccabi Yavne+0.00on par
Hapoel Ashkelon+0.00on par

Total goals

79%Over
  • Over79
  • Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Maccabi Yavne ↓

Hapoel Ashkelon →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–16%
1–24%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–16%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
92%8%2.5
79%21%3.5
61%39%4.5
41%59%

Double chance

Maccabi Yavne or draw
84%
Maccabi Yavne or Hapoel Ashkelon
84%
Draw or Hapoel Ashkelon
32%

Winning margin

Maccabi Yavne wins by 2+
48%
Hapoel Ashkelon wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Maccabi Yavne 1+ goals
94%
Maccabi Yavne 2+ goals
78%
Maccabi Yavne 3+ goals
54%
Hapoel Ashkelon 1+ goals
75%
Hapoel Ashkelon 2+ goals
40%
Hapoel Ashkelon 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Maccabi Yavne (draw refunded)
81%
Hapoel Ashkelon (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Maccabi Yavne at home — creates 3.30, concedes 1.00 · 10 matches

Hapoel Ashkelon away — creates 1.75, concedes 2.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Maccabi Yavne attack 3.30 + Hapoel Ashkelon defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.90

Hapoel Ashkelon attack 1.75 + Maccabi Yavne defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Maccabi Yavne scores more
68%
level
16%
Hapoel Ashkelon scores more
16%

Maccabi Yavne at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Maccabi Yavne will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

State Cup: Maccabi Yavne 2–3 Hapoel Ashkelon

Hapoel Ashkelon beat Maccabi Yavne 3-2 in State Cup on November 23, 2020.

The match was played at Yavne Municipal Stadium in Yavne.