Maccabi Tzur Shalom 2–2 Maccabi Ironi Tamra

Maccabi Tzur Shalom

FT

2 – 2

Maccabi Ironi Tamra

3/5/2021

League #496 · North A - 11

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Maccabi Tzur Shalom30%

×Draw28%

Maccabi Ironi Tamra42%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Maccabi Tzur ShalomExpected goals in this matchMaccabi Ironi Tamra

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.01

1.25

Maccabi Tzur Shalom

1.01

Maccabi Ironi Tamra

1.25

Maccabi Ironi Tamra creates 24% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 11 away

1.20

creates per match

1.36

1.13

allows per match

0.82

creates per match

Maccabi Tzur Shalom

1.20

Maccabi Ironi Tamra

1.36

allows per match

Maccabi Tzur Shalom

1.13

Maccabi Ironi Tamra

0.82

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Maccabi Tzur Shalom+0.00on par

Maccabi Ironi Tamra+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Maccabi Tzur Shalom ↓

Maccabi Ironi Tamra →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–113%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Maccabi Tzur Shalom or draw

58%

Maccabi Tzur Shalom or Maccabi Ironi Tamra

72%

Draw or Maccabi Ironi Tamra

70%

Winning margin

Maccabi Tzur Shalom wins by 2+

11%

Maccabi Ironi Tamra wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Maccabi Tzur Shalom 1+ goals

64%

Maccabi Tzur Shalom 2+ goals

27%

Maccabi Tzur Shalom 3+ goals

8%

Maccabi Ironi Tamra 1+ goals

71%

Maccabi Ironi Tamra 2+ goals

36%

Maccabi Ironi Tamra 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Maccabi Tzur Shalom (draw refunded)

42%

Maccabi Ironi Tamra (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Maccabi Tzur Shalom at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.13 · 15 matches

Maccabi Ironi Tamra away — creates 1.36, concedes 0.82 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Maccabi Tzur Shalom attack 1.20 + Maccabi Ironi Tamra defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 1.01

Maccabi Ironi Tamra attack 1.36 + Maccabi Tzur Shalom defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Maccabi Tzur Shalom scores more

30%

level

28%

Maccabi Ironi Tamra scores more

42%

Maccabi Ironi Tamra at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Maccabi Ironi Tamra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff