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Maccabi Ironi Tamra vs Maccabi Tzur Shalom — League #496 2026

Maccabi Ironi Tamra
Maccabi Ironi Tamra
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Maccabi Tzur Shalom
Maccabi Tzur Shalom
1/21/2022League #496League #496 · North - 20

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Maccabi Ironi Tamra40%
×Draw33%
Maccabi Tzur Shalom27%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Maccabi Ironi Tamra
1.02
Maccabi Tzur Shalom
0.78

Maccabi Ironi Tamra creates 31% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 13 away

creates per match

Maccabi Ironi Tamra
1.11
Maccabi Tzur Shalom
0.77

allows per match

Maccabi Ironi Tamra
0.78
Maccabi Tzur Shalom
0.92

finishing

Maccabi Ironi Tamra+0.00on par
Maccabi Tzur Shalom+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Under
  • Under73
  • Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Maccabi Ironi Tamra ↓

Maccabi Tzur Shalom →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–017%
0–113%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
83%17%1.5
54%46%2.5
27%73%3.5
11%89%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Maccabi Ironi Tamra or draw
73%
Maccabi Ironi Tamra or Maccabi Tzur Shalom
67%
Draw or Maccabi Tzur Shalom
60%

Winning margin

Maccabi Ironi Tamra wins by 2+
16%
Maccabi Tzur Shalom wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Maccabi Ironi Tamra 1+ goals
64%
Maccabi Ironi Tamra 2+ goals
27%
Maccabi Ironi Tamra 3+ goals
8%
Maccabi Tzur Shalom 1+ goals
54%
Maccabi Tzur Shalom 2+ goals
18%
Maccabi Tzur Shalom 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Maccabi Ironi Tamra (draw refunded)
60%
Maccabi Tzur Shalom (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
21%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Maccabi Ironi Tamra at home — creates 1.11, concedes 0.78 · 9 matches

Maccabi Tzur Shalom away — creates 0.77, concedes 0.92 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Maccabi Ironi Tamra attack 1.11 + Maccabi Tzur Shalom defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.02

Maccabi Tzur Shalom attack 0.77 + Maccabi Ironi Tamra defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Maccabi Ironi Tamra scores more
40%
level
33%
Maccabi Tzur Shalom scores more
27%

Maccabi Ironi Tamra at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Maccabi Ironi Tamra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Maccabi Ironi Tamra vs Maccabi Tzur Shalom

Maccabi Ironi Tamra beat Maccabi Tzur Shalom 1-0 in League #496 on January 21, 2022.