Maccabi Tel Aviv 3–2 Zorya Luhansk: Result & Stats

Maccabi Tel Aviv

FT

3 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Zorya Luhansk

11/25/2023

UEFA Europa Conference League · Group Stage - 3TSC Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Maccabi Tel Aviv72%

×Draw17%

Zorya Luhansk11%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Maccabi Tel AvivExpected goals in this matchZorya Luhansk

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.28

0.74

Maccabi Tel Aviv

2.28

Zorya Luhansk

0.74

Maccabi Tel Aviv creates 208% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 7 away

2.13

creates per match

0.86

0.63

allows per match

2.43

creates per match

Maccabi Tel Aviv

2.13

Zorya Luhansk

0.86

allows per match

Maccabi Tel Aviv

0.63

Zorya Luhansk

2.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Maccabi Tel Aviv+0.00on par

Zorya Luhansk+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Maccabi Tel Aviv ↓

Zorya Luhansk →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–14%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–18%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–010%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–06%

4–14%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Maccabi Tel Aviv or draw

89%

Maccabi Tel Aviv or Zorya Luhansk

83%

Draw or Zorya Luhansk

28%

Winning margin

Maccabi Tel Aviv wins by 2+

48%

Zorya Luhansk wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Maccabi Tel Aviv 1+ goals

90%

Maccabi Tel Aviv 2+ goals

66%

Maccabi Tel Aviv 3+ goals

39%

Zorya Luhansk 1+ goals

52%

Zorya Luhansk 2+ goals

17%

Zorya Luhansk 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Maccabi Tel Aviv (draw refunded)

87%

Zorya Luhansk (draw refunded)

13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Maccabi Tel Aviv at home — creates 2.13, concedes 0.63 · 16 matches

Zorya Luhansk away — creates 0.86, concedes 2.43 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Maccabi Tel Aviv attack 2.13 + Zorya Luhansk defence 2.43 → ÷2 → 2.28

Zorya Luhansk attack 0.86 + Maccabi Tel Aviv defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Maccabi Tel Aviv scores more

72%

level

17%

Zorya Luhansk scores more

11%

Maccabi Tel Aviv at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Maccabi Tel Aviv will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff