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Maccabi Tel Aviv vs Sheriff Tiraspol — UEFA Europa League 2026

Maccabi Tel Aviv
Maccabi Tel Aviv
Preview
16:00
Sheriff Tiraspol
Sheriff Tiraspol
7/30/2026UEFA Europa LeagueUEFA Europa League · 2nd Qualifying RoundAdjarabet Arena
43%
Sheriff Tiraspol
model favours
31%26%43%

Maccabi Tel Aviv have won 3 in a row

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
51%
under 2.5 goals
53%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Maccabi Tel Aviv31%
×Draw26%
Sheriff Tiraspol43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Maccabi Tel Aviv
1.18
Sheriff Tiraspol
1.45

Sheriff Tiraspol creates 23% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 9 away

creates per match

Maccabi Tel Aviv
0.92
Sheriff Tiraspol
0.89

allows per match

Maccabi Tel Aviv
2.00
Sheriff Tiraspol
1.44

finishing

Maccabi Tel Aviv+0.00on par
Sheriff Tiraspol+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Maccabi Tel Aviv ↓

Sheriff Tiraspol →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Maccabi Tel Aviv or draw
57%
Maccabi Tel Aviv or Sheriff Tiraspol
74%
Draw or Sheriff Tiraspol
69%

Winning margin

Maccabi Tel Aviv wins by 2+
13%
Sheriff Tiraspol wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Maccabi Tel Aviv 1+ goals
69%
Maccabi Tel Aviv 2+ goals
33%
Maccabi Tel Aviv 3+ goals
12%
Sheriff Tiraspol 1+ goals
77%
Sheriff Tiraspol 2+ goals
42%
Sheriff Tiraspol 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Maccabi Tel Aviv (draw refunded)
42%
Sheriff Tiraspol (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Maccabi Tel Aviv at home — creates 0.92, concedes 2.00 · 12 matches

Sheriff Tiraspol away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.44 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Maccabi Tel Aviv attack 0.92 + Sheriff Tiraspol defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.18

Sheriff Tiraspol attack 0.89 + Maccabi Tel Aviv defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Maccabi Tel Aviv scores more
31%
level
26%
Sheriff Tiraspol scores more
43%

Sheriff Tiraspol at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Sheriff Tiraspol will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Maccabi Tel Aviv score first in only 32% of matches
  • Both teams score in 72% of Maccabi Tel Aviv’s matches
  • Sheriff Tiraspol win just 23% of their away games
  • Sheriff Tiraspol matches are rarely goalless — only 3.8% end 0-0
  • 25% of Sheriff Tiraspol’s goals come in the first 15 minutes

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Similar styles
Maccabi Tel Aviv
Direct / counter-attacking
Sheriff Tiraspol
Direct / counter-attacking
43%PossessionBiggest gap31%
81%Pass accuracy70%
8.4Shots7.3
0.78xG—
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Maccabi Tel AvivSheriff Tiraspol

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Aviv
WWLWW
Tiraspol
LWWWD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Maccabi Tel Aviv host Sheriff Tiraspol

July 30, 2026: Maccabi Tel Aviv take on Sheriff Tiraspol in UEFA Europa League. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Maccabi Tel Aviv host Sheriff Tiraspol at Adjarabet Arena.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.