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Sheriff Tiraspol vs Maccabi Tel Aviv — UEFA Europa League 2026

Sheriff Tiraspol
Sheriff Tiraspol
Preview
17:00
Maccabi Tel Aviv
Maccabi Tel Aviv
7/23/2026UEFA Europa LeagueUEFA Europa League · 2nd Qualifying RoundSheriff Arena
48%
Sheriff Tiraspol
model favours
48%28%24%

Sheriff Tiraspol are unbeaten in 10 straight

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
64%
under 2.5 goals
41%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Sheriff Tiraspol48%
×Draw28%
Maccabi Tel Aviv24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sheriff Tiraspol
1.31
Maccabi Tel Aviv
0.84

Sheriff Tiraspol creates 56% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 12 away

creates per match

Sheriff Tiraspol
1.11
Maccabi Tel Aviv
0.58

allows per match

Sheriff Tiraspol
1.11
Maccabi Tel Aviv
1.50

finishing

Sheriff Tiraspol+0.00on par
Maccabi Tel Aviv+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sheriff Tiraspol ↓

Maccabi Tel Aviv →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Sheriff Tiraspol or draw
76%
Sheriff Tiraspol or Maccabi Tel Aviv
72%
Draw or Maccabi Tel Aviv
52%

Winning margin

Sheriff Tiraspol wins by 2+
22%
Maccabi Tel Aviv wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Sheriff Tiraspol 1+ goals
73%
Sheriff Tiraspol 2+ goals
38%
Sheriff Tiraspol 3+ goals
14%
Maccabi Tel Aviv 1+ goals
57%
Maccabi Tel Aviv 2+ goals
21%
Maccabi Tel Aviv 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Sheriff Tiraspol (draw refunded)
67%
Maccabi Tel Aviv (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sheriff Tiraspol at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.11 · 9 matches

Maccabi Tel Aviv away — creates 0.58, concedes 1.50 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sheriff Tiraspol attack 1.11 + Maccabi Tel Aviv defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.31

Maccabi Tel Aviv attack 0.58 + Sheriff Tiraspol defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Sheriff Tiraspol scores more
48%
level
28%
Maccabi Tel Aviv scores more
24%

Sheriff Tiraspol at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Sheriff Tiraspol will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Sheriff Tiraspol have won 3 in a row
  • Maccabi Tel Aviv score first in only 30% of matches
  • Both teams score in 74% of Maccabi Tel Aviv’s matches
  • 25% of Sheriff Tiraspol’s goals come in the first 15 minutes
  • Sheriff Tiraspol matches are rarely goalless — only 4% end 0-0
  • Sheriff Tiraspol and Maccabi Tel Aviv have never met before

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Similar styles
Sheriff Tiraspol
Direct / counter-attacking
Maccabi Tel Aviv
Direct / counter-attacking
31%PossessionBiggest gap43%
70%Pass accuracy81%
7.3Shots8.4
—xG0.78
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Sheriff TiraspolMaccabi Tel Aviv

Head-to-head

First-ever meeting

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Tiraspol
WWWDD
Aviv
WLWWD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Sheriff Tiraspol vs Maccabi Tel Aviv — Match Preview

Sheriff Tiraspol face Maccabi Tel Aviv on July 23, 2026 in this UEFA Europa League fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Sheriff Tiraspol host Maccabi Tel Aviv at Sheriff Arena.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.