Maccabi Tel Aviv 2–0 Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa

Maccabi Tel Aviv

FT

2 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa

E. Almog 33', 26'

2/2/2022

State Cup · Quarter-finalsBloomfield Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Maccabi Tel Aviv67%

×Draw19%

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa14%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Maccabi Tel AvivExpected goals in this matchMaccabi Kabilio Jaffa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.23

0.93

Maccabi Tel Aviv

2.23

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa

0.93

Maccabi Tel Aviv creates 140% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 4 away

3.20

creates per match

1.25

0.60

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Maccabi Tel Aviv

3.20

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa

1.25

allows per match

Maccabi Tel Aviv

0.60

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa

1.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Maccabi Tel Aviv+0.00on par

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Maccabi Tel Aviv ↓

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–19%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

38%62%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Maccabi Tel Aviv or draw

86%

Maccabi Tel Aviv or Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa

81%

Draw or Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa

33%

Winning margin

Maccabi Tel Aviv wins by 2+

43%

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Maccabi Tel Aviv 1+ goals

89%

Maccabi Tel Aviv 2+ goals

65%

Maccabi Tel Aviv 3+ goals

38%

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa 1+ goals

61%

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa 2+ goals

24%

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Maccabi Tel Aviv (draw refunded)

82%

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa (draw refunded)

18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Maccabi Tel Aviv at home — creates 3.20, concedes 0.60 · 5 matches

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Maccabi Tel Aviv attack 3.20 + Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 2.23

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa attack 1.25 + Maccabi Tel Aviv defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Maccabi Tel Aviv scores more

67%

level

19%

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa scores more

14%

Maccabi Tel Aviv at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Maccabi Tel Aviv will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'

26'

33'

34'

46'

Saborit← O. Davidzada

46'

O. Khalaila← S. Perica

54'

G. Amsalem← E. Levi

54'

R. Gabay← M. Ohayon

61'

M. Kandil

70'

I. Nachmias← E. Almog

70'

Geraldes← E. Golasa

70'

E. Tzabari← Y. Cohen

74'

G. Kanichowsky← M. Hozez

80'

D. Moskovich← M. Beit-Yaakov

80'

L. Cohen← R. Peretz

90'

D. Tenenbaum

Maccabi

18

Malul

5

▼

55

3

27

8

▼

Ohayon

77

▼

Peretz

24

▼

Beit-Ya'a

10

Lesdman

16

Gabay

99

▼

Levi

19

Daniel

27

▼

Davidzada

3

Baltaksa

30

Kandil

23

▼

22

6

17

9

▼

Perica

7

▼

Hozez

29

⚽2

▼

Almog

Manager: M. Krstajić

46'▲Saborit←▼O. Davidzada

46'▲O. Khalaila←▼S. Perica

70'▲I. Nachmias←▼E. Almog

70'▲Geraldes←▼E. Golasa

74'▲G. Kanichowsky←▼M. Hozez

Maccabi Tel Aviv substitutes

4Saborit20Khalaila5Nachmias28Geraldes16Kanichowsky1Peretz10Biton11Chaim38Lin

Manager: I. Baruch

54'▲G. Amsalem←▼E. Levi

54'▲R. Gabay←▼M. Ohayon

70'▲E. Tzabari←▼Y. Cohen

80'▲D. Moskovich←▼M. Beit-Yaakov

80'▲L. Cohen←▼R. Peretz

Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa substitutes

9Amsalem23Gabay11Tzabari7Moskovich19Cohen4Yosef14Borochov22Shani26Rozilio