Maccabi Tel Aviv 0–3 FC Midtjylland: Result & Stats

Maccabi Tel Aviv

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

FC Midtjylland

Franculino 84', 44'

P. Billing 71'

10/23/2025

UEFA Europa League

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Maccabi Tel Aviv15%

×Draw17%

FC Midtjylland67%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Maccabi Tel AvivExpected goals in this matchFC Midtjylland

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.15

2.56

Maccabi Tel Aviv

1.15

FC Midtjylland

2.56

FC Midtjylland creates 123% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 7 away

1.17

creates per match

2.29

2.83

allows per match

1.14

creates per match

Maccabi Tel Aviv

1.17

FC Midtjylland

2.29

allows per match

Maccabi Tel Aviv

2.83

FC Midtjylland

1.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Maccabi Tel Aviv+0.00on par

FC Midtjylland+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Maccabi Tel Aviv ↓

FC Midtjylland →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–16%

0–28%

0–37%

0–44%

1

1–03%

1–17%

1–29%

1–38%

1–45%

2

2–02%

2–14%

2–25%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

50%50%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

Maccabi Tel Aviv or draw

33%

Maccabi Tel Aviv or FC Midtjylland

83%

Draw or FC Midtjylland

85%

Winning margin

Maccabi Tel Aviv wins by 2+

6%

FC Midtjylland wins by 2+

46%

Team goals

Maccabi Tel Aviv 1+ goals

68%

Maccabi Tel Aviv 2+ goals

32%

Maccabi Tel Aviv 3+ goals

11%

FC Midtjylland 1+ goals

92%

FC Midtjylland 2+ goals

72%

FC Midtjylland 3+ goals

46%

Draw no bet

Maccabi Tel Aviv (draw refunded)

19%

FC Midtjylland (draw refunded)

81%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Maccabi Tel Aviv at home — creates 1.17, concedes 2.83 · 6 matches

FC Midtjylland away — creates 2.29, concedes 1.14 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Maccabi Tel Aviv attack 1.17 + FC Midtjylland defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.15

FC Midtjylland attack 2.29 + Maccabi Tel Aviv defence 2.83 → ÷2 → 2.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Maccabi Tel Aviv scores more

15%

level

17%

FC Midtjylland scores more

67%

FC Midtjylland at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "FC Midtjylland will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

41'

Denil Castillo

44'

Franculino↳ V. Bak

46'

P. Bravo← D. Castillo

46'

A. Simsir← Cho Gue-Sung

62'

S. Abu Farhi← K. Andrade

64'

68'

68'

68'

71'

72'

M. Gogorza← D. Osorio

75'

Mikel Gogorza

84'

Franculino↳ A. Simsir

85'

Lee Han-Beom← P. Billing

87'

I. Shahar← D. Peretz

87'

I. Ben Simon← O. Davida

90+2'

Han-Beom Lee

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MaccabiFC

Overview

44%Possession56%

12Total Shots12

0.95Expected Goals (xG)1.44

4Corners6

10Fouls14

Shots

12Total Shots12

3On Target4

7Off Target5

2Blocked3

6Inside Box9

6Outside Box3

Passing

44%Possession56%

358Total Passes456

291Accurate Passes374

81%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

1Saves3

0.30Goals Prevented0.30

Discipline

10Fouls14

0Yellow Cards4

1Offsides2