Maccabi Tel Aviv vs Beitar Jerusalem — Ligat Ha'al 2025
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 23+ matches
Maccabi Tel Aviv43%
Beitar Jerusalem35%✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Maccabi Tel Aviv creates 13% more chances
Season form · 27 home / 23 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over67
- Under33
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes67
- No33
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Maccabi Tel Aviv ↓
Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Maccabi Tel Aviv at home — creates 2.37, concedes 1.07 · 27 matches
Beitar Jerusalem away — creates 2.17, concedes 1.30 · 23 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Maccabi Tel Aviv attack 2.37 + Beitar Jerusalem defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.83
Beitar Jerusalem attack 2.17 + Maccabi Tel Aviv defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.62
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 43%?"
Maccabi Tel Aviv at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 43% does not mean "Maccabi Tel Aviv will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Player of the match
Match Events
Hapoel Beer ShevaBeitar JerusalemMaccabi Tel Aviv
Hapoel Tel Aviv
Maccabi Haifa
Hapoel Petah Tikva
Maccabi Netanya
Bnei Sakhnin
Ironi Kiryat Shmona
Hapoel Haifa
Ashdod
Hapoel Katamon
Ironi Tiberias
Maccabi Bnei RainaIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Possession
Shots
Pass accuracy
Statistics
Maccabi Tel Aviv host Beitar Jerusalem on Saturday, 16 May 2026 at 17:30. The match is part of the Ligat Ha'al 2025/2026 season.
Maccabi Tel Aviv 1 – 2 Beitar Jerusalem
Beitar Jerusalem beat Maccabi Tel Aviv 2-1 in Ligat Ha'al on May 16, 2026.
Goals: D. Peretz (51'), O. Atzili (60'), T. Muzie (80').
Beitar Jerusalem controlled possession (56%) and registered 12 shots to 16.
The match was played at Bloomfield Stadium in Tel-Aviv.