Maccabi Shaarayim 0–1 Shimshon Kafr Qasim

Maccabi Shaarayim

FT

0 – 1

Shimshon Kafr Qasim

9/21/2018

League #496 · South - 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Maccabi Shaarayim17%

×Draw28%

Shimshon Kafr Qasim55%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Maccabi ShaarayimExpected goals in this matchShimshon Kafr Qasim

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.61

1.35

Maccabi Shaarayim

0.61

Shimshon Kafr Qasim

1.35

Shimshon Kafr Qasim creates 121% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 5 away

0.83

creates per match

1.40

1.30

allows per match

0.40

creates per match

Maccabi Shaarayim

0.83

Shimshon Kafr Qasim

1.40

allows per match

Maccabi Shaarayim

1.30

Shimshon Kafr Qasim

0.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Maccabi Shaarayim+0.00on par

Shimshon Kafr Qasim+0.00on par

Total goals

Under69
Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No66
Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Maccabi Shaarayim ↓

Shimshon Kafr Qasim →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–119%

0–213%

0–36%

0–42%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–03%

2–14%

2–22%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–20%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

58%42%2.5

31%69%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Maccabi Shaarayim or draw

45%

Maccabi Shaarayim or Shimshon Kafr Qasim

72%

Draw or Shimshon Kafr Qasim

83%

Winning margin

Maccabi Shaarayim wins by 2+

4%

Shimshon Kafr Qasim wins by 2+

27%

Team goals

Maccabi Shaarayim 1+ goals

46%

Maccabi Shaarayim 2+ goals

13%

Maccabi Shaarayim 3+ goals

2%

Shimshon Kafr Qasim 1+ goals

74%

Shimshon Kafr Qasim 2+ goals

39%

Shimshon Kafr Qasim 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Maccabi Shaarayim (draw refunded)

23%

Shimshon Kafr Qasim (draw refunded)

77%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

22%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Maccabi Shaarayim at home — creates 0.83, concedes 1.30 · 23 matches

Shimshon Kafr Qasim away — creates 1.40, concedes 0.40 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Maccabi Shaarayim attack 0.83 + Shimshon Kafr Qasim defence 0.40 → ÷2 → 0.61

Shimshon Kafr Qasim attack 1.40 + Maccabi Shaarayim defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Maccabi Shaarayim scores more

17%

level

28%

Shimshon Kafr Qasim scores more

55%

Shimshon Kafr Qasim at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Shimshon Kafr Qasim will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff