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Maccabi Shaarayim vs Maccabi Ashdod — State Cup 2019

Maccabi Shaarayim
Maccabi Shaarayim
FT
3 – 2
Maccabi Ashdod
Maccabi Ashdod
9/2/2022State CupState Cup · 5th Round (Liga Alef)Etstony Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Maccabi Shaarayim39%
×Draw23%
Maccabi Ashdod38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Maccabi Shaarayim
1.67
Maccabi Ashdod
1.65

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 6 home / 8 away

creates per match

Maccabi Shaarayim
1.83
Maccabi Ashdod
2.13

allows per match

Maccabi Shaarayim
1.17
Maccabi Ashdod
1.50

finishing

Maccabi Shaarayim+0.00on par
Maccabi Ashdod+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Maccabi Shaarayim ↓

Maccabi Ashdod →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Maccabi Shaarayim or draw
62%
Maccabi Shaarayim or Maccabi Ashdod
77%
Draw or Maccabi Ashdod
61%

Winning margin

Maccabi Shaarayim wins by 2+
20%
Maccabi Ashdod wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Maccabi Shaarayim 1+ goals
81%
Maccabi Shaarayim 2+ goals
50%
Maccabi Shaarayim 3+ goals
23%
Maccabi Ashdod 1+ goals
81%
Maccabi Ashdod 2+ goals
49%
Maccabi Ashdod 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Maccabi Shaarayim (draw refunded)
51%
Maccabi Ashdod (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Maccabi Shaarayim at home — creates 1.83, concedes 1.17 · 6 matches

Maccabi Ashdod away — creates 2.13, concedes 1.50 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Maccabi Shaarayim attack 1.83 + Maccabi Ashdod defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.67

Maccabi Ashdod attack 2.13 + Maccabi Shaarayim defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Maccabi Shaarayim scores more
39%
level
23%
Maccabi Ashdod scores more
38%

Maccabi Shaarayim at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Maccabi Shaarayim will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

State Cup: Maccabi Shaarayim 3–2 Maccabi Ashdod

Maccabi Shaarayim beat Maccabi Ashdod 3-2 in State Cup on September 2, 2022.

The match was played at Etstony Stadium in Rehovot.