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Maccabi Ashdod vs Maccabi Shaarayim — League #496 2026

Maccabi Ashdod
Maccabi Ashdod
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Maccabi Shaarayim
Maccabi Shaarayim
I. Benisti 77'
T. Madhala 72'
R. Talio 54'
2/3/2024League #496League #496 · South - 13Ashdod Senti

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Maccabi Ashdod45%
×Draw25%
Maccabi Shaarayim30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Maccabi Ashdod
1.61
Maccabi Shaarayim
1.27

Maccabi Ashdod creates 27% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 22 away

creates per match

Maccabi Ashdod
1.82
Maccabi Shaarayim
1.09

allows per match

Maccabi Ashdod
1.45
Maccabi Shaarayim
1.41

finishing

Maccabi Ashdod+0.00on par
Maccabi Shaarayim+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Maccabi Ashdod ↓

Maccabi Shaarayim →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Maccabi Ashdod or draw
70%
Maccabi Ashdod or Maccabi Shaarayim
75%
Draw or Maccabi Shaarayim
55%

Winning margin

Maccabi Ashdod wins by 2+
23%
Maccabi Shaarayim wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Maccabi Ashdod 1+ goals
80%
Maccabi Ashdod 2+ goals
48%
Maccabi Ashdod 3+ goals
22%
Maccabi Shaarayim 1+ goals
72%
Maccabi Shaarayim 2+ goals
36%
Maccabi Shaarayim 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Maccabi Ashdod (draw refunded)
60%
Maccabi Shaarayim (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Maccabi Ashdod at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.45 · 11 matches

Maccabi Shaarayim away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.41 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Maccabi Ashdod attack 1.82 + Maccabi Shaarayim defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.61

Maccabi Shaarayim attack 1.09 + Maccabi Ashdod defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Maccabi Ashdod scores more
45%
level
25%
Maccabi Shaarayim scores more
30%

Maccabi Ashdod at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Maccabi Ashdod will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

54'
R. Talio
72'
T. Madhala
77'
I. Benisti

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Maccabi Ashdod vs Maccabi Shaarayim

Maccabi Shaarayim beat Maccabi Ashdod 2-1 in League #496 on February 3, 2024.

Goals: R. Talio (54'), T. Madhala (72'), I. Benisti (77').

The match was played at Ashdod Senti in Ashdod.