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Maccabi Shaarayim vs Maccabi Ashdod — League #496 2026

Maccabi Shaarayim
Maccabi Shaarayim
FT
0 – 1
Maccabi Ashdod
Maccabi Ashdod
B. Suissa 29' (pen)
10/15/2021League #496League #496 · South - 6

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Maccabi Shaarayim28%
×Draw27%
Maccabi Ashdod45%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Maccabi Shaarayim
1.01
Maccabi Ashdod
1.35

Maccabi Ashdod creates 34% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 10 away

creates per match

Maccabi Shaarayim
0.83
Maccabi Ashdod
1.40

allows per match

Maccabi Shaarayim
1.30
Maccabi Ashdod
1.20

finishing

Maccabi Shaarayim+0.00on par
Maccabi Ashdod+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Maccabi Shaarayim ↓

Maccabi Ashdod →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–113%
0–29%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Maccabi Shaarayim or draw
55%
Maccabi Shaarayim or Maccabi Ashdod
73%
Draw or Maccabi Ashdod
72%

Winning margin

Maccabi Shaarayim wins by 2+
10%
Maccabi Ashdod wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Maccabi Shaarayim 1+ goals
64%
Maccabi Shaarayim 2+ goals
27%
Maccabi Shaarayim 3+ goals
8%
Maccabi Ashdod 1+ goals
74%
Maccabi Ashdod 2+ goals
39%
Maccabi Ashdod 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Maccabi Shaarayim (draw refunded)
39%
Maccabi Ashdod (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Maccabi Shaarayim at home — creates 0.83, concedes 1.30 · 23 matches

Maccabi Ashdod away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.20 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Maccabi Shaarayim attack 0.83 + Maccabi Ashdod defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.01

Maccabi Ashdod attack 1.40 + Maccabi Shaarayim defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Maccabi Shaarayim scores more
28%
level
27%
Maccabi Ashdod scores more
45%

Maccabi Ashdod at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Maccabi Ashdod will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

29'
B. SuissaPenalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #496: Maccabi Shaarayim 0–1 Maccabi Ashdod

Maccabi Ashdod beat Maccabi Shaarayim 1-0 in League #496 on October 15, 2021.

Goals: B. Suissa (29' pen).