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Maccabi Shaarayim vs Hapoel Lod — State Cup 2019

Maccabi Shaarayim
Maccabi Shaarayim
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Hapoel Lod
Hapoel Lod
9/20/2022State CupState Cup · 6th RoundEtstony Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Maccabi Shaarayim52%
×Draw22%
Hapoel Lod25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Maccabi Shaarayim
1.92
Hapoel Lod
1.28

Maccabi Shaarayim creates 50% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 5 away

creates per match

Maccabi Shaarayim
1.83
Hapoel Lod
1.40

allows per match

Maccabi Shaarayim
1.17
Hapoel Lod
2.00

finishing

Maccabi Shaarayim+0.00on par
Hapoel Lod+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Maccabi Shaarayim ↓

Hapoel Lod →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Maccabi Shaarayim or draw
75%
Maccabi Shaarayim or Hapoel Lod
78%
Draw or Hapoel Lod
48%

Winning margin

Maccabi Shaarayim wins by 2+
30%
Hapoel Lod wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Maccabi Shaarayim 1+ goals
85%
Maccabi Shaarayim 2+ goals
57%
Maccabi Shaarayim 3+ goals
30%
Hapoel Lod 1+ goals
72%
Hapoel Lod 2+ goals
37%
Hapoel Lod 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Maccabi Shaarayim (draw refunded)
67%
Hapoel Lod (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Maccabi Shaarayim at home — creates 1.83, concedes 1.17 · 6 matches

Hapoel Lod away — creates 1.40, concedes 2.00 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Maccabi Shaarayim attack 1.83 + Hapoel Lod defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.92

Hapoel Lod attack 1.40 + Maccabi Shaarayim defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Maccabi Shaarayim scores more
52%
level
22%
Hapoel Lod scores more
25%

Maccabi Shaarayim at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Maccabi Shaarayim will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Maccabi Shaarayim vs Hapoel Lod

Maccabi Shaarayim beat Hapoel Lod 1-0 in State Cup on September 20, 2022.

The match was played at Etstony Stadium in Rehovot.