West United 3–2 Bintang Lair: Result & Stats

West United

FT

3 – 2

Bintang Lair

12/21/2019

Eerste Divisie · Round 3Letitia Vriesde Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

West United64%

×Draw18%

Bintang Lair18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

West UnitedExpected goals in this matchBintang Lair

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.56

1.32

West United

2.56

Bintang Lair

1.32

West United creates 94% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 16 away

1.50

creates per match

1.31

1.33

allows per match

3.63

creates per match

West United

1.50

Bintang Lair

1.31

allows per match

West United

1.33

Bintang Lair

3.63

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

West United+0.00on par

Bintang Lair+0.00on par

Total goals

Over74
Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

West United ↓

Bintang Lair →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–17%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–04%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

74%26%3.5

54%46%4.5

34%66%

Double chance

West United or draw

82%

West United or Bintang Lair

82%

Draw or Bintang Lair

36%

Winning margin

West United wins by 2+

42%

Bintang Lair wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

West United 1+ goals

92%

West United 2+ goals

72%

West United 3+ goals

46%

Bintang Lair 1+ goals

73%

Bintang Lair 2+ goals

38%

Bintang Lair 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

West United (draw refunded)

78%

Bintang Lair (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

West United at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.33 · 6 matches

Bintang Lair away — creates 1.31, concedes 3.63 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

West United attack 1.50 + Bintang Lair defence 3.63 → ÷2 → 2.56

Bintang Lair attack 1.31 + West United defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

West United scores more

64%

level

18%

Bintang Lair scores more

18%

West United at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "West United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.