Maccabi Petah Tikva 4–2 Hapoel Tel Aviv

Maccabi Petah Tikva

FT

4 – 2

HT: 2 – 0

Hapoel Tel Aviv

4/20/2024

Ligat Ha'al · Relegation Round - 3HaMoshava Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Maccabi Petah Tikva39%

×Draw27%

Hapoel Tel Aviv33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Maccabi Petah TikvaExpected goals in this matchHapoel Tel Aviv

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.28

1.16

Maccabi Petah Tikva

1.28

Hapoel Tel Aviv

1.16

Maccabi Petah Tikva creates 10% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 105 away

1.15

creates per match

1.02

1.30

allows per match

1.42

creates per match

Maccabi Petah Tikva

1.15

Hapoel Tel Aviv

1.02

allows per match

Maccabi Petah Tikva

1.30

Hapoel Tel Aviv

1.42

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Maccabi Petah Tikva+0.00on par

Hapoel Tel Aviv+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Maccabi Petah Tikva ↓

Hapoel Tel Aviv →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Maccabi Petah Tikva or draw

67%

Maccabi Petah Tikva or Hapoel Tel Aviv

73%

Draw or Hapoel Tel Aviv

61%

Winning margin

Maccabi Petah Tikva wins by 2+

17%

Hapoel Tel Aviv wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Maccabi Petah Tikva 1+ goals

72%

Maccabi Petah Tikva 2+ goals

37%

Maccabi Petah Tikva 3+ goals

14%

Hapoel Tel Aviv 1+ goals

69%

Hapoel Tel Aviv 2+ goals

32%

Hapoel Tel Aviv 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Maccabi Petah Tikva (draw refunded)

54%

Hapoel Tel Aviv (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Maccabi Petah Tikva at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.30 · 67 matches

Hapoel Tel Aviv away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.42 · 105 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Maccabi Petah Tikva attack 1.15 + Hapoel Tel Aviv defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.28

Hapoel Tel Aviv attack 1.02 + Maccabi Petah Tikva defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Maccabi Petah Tikva scores more

39%

level

27%

Hapoel Tel Aviv scores more

33%

Maccabi Petah Tikva at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Maccabi Petah Tikva will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff