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Maccabi Petah Tikva vs Hapoel Beer Sheva — State Cup 2019

Maccabi Petah Tikva
Maccabi Petah Tikvaadvanced
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Hapoel Beer Sheva
Hapoel Beer Sheva
5/30/2024State CupState Cup · FinalBloomfield Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Maccabi Petah Tikva31%
×Draw27%
Hapoel Beer Sheva42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Maccabi Petah Tikva
1.13
Hapoel Beer Sheva
1.35

Hapoel Beer Sheva creates 19% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 13 away

creates per match

Maccabi Petah Tikva
1.40
Hapoel Beer Sheva
2.31

allows per match

Maccabi Petah Tikva
0.40
Hapoel Beer Sheva
0.85

finishing

Maccabi Petah Tikva+0.00on par
Hapoel Beer Sheva+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Maccabi Petah Tikva ↓

Hapoel Beer Sheva →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Maccabi Petah Tikva or draw
58%
Maccabi Petah Tikva or Hapoel Beer Sheva
73%
Draw or Hapoel Beer Sheva
69%

Winning margin

Maccabi Petah Tikva wins by 2+
13%
Hapoel Beer Sheva wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Maccabi Petah Tikva 1+ goals
68%
Maccabi Petah Tikva 2+ goals
31%
Maccabi Petah Tikva 3+ goals
11%
Hapoel Beer Sheva 1+ goals
74%
Hapoel Beer Sheva 2+ goals
39%
Hapoel Beer Sheva 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Maccabi Petah Tikva (draw refunded)
43%
Hapoel Beer Sheva (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Maccabi Petah Tikva at home — creates 1.40, concedes 0.40 · 5 matches

Hapoel Beer Sheva away — creates 2.31, concedes 0.85 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Maccabi Petah Tikva attack 1.40 + Hapoel Beer Sheva defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.13

Hapoel Beer Sheva attack 2.31 + Maccabi Petah Tikva defence 0.40 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Maccabi Petah Tikva scores more
31%
level
27%
Hapoel Beer Sheva scores more
42%

Hapoel Beer Sheva at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Hapoel Beer Sheva will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

State Cup: Maccabi Petah Tikva 1–0 Hapoel Beer Sheva

Maccabi Petah Tikva beat Hapoel Beer Sheva 1-0 in State Cup on May 30, 2024.

The match was played at Bloomfield Stadium in Tel-Aviv.