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Maccabi Nujeidat Ahmed vs Maccabi Ironi Tamra — League #496 2026

Maccabi Nujeidat Ahmed
Maccabi Nujeidat Ahmed
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Maccabi Ironi Tamra
Maccabi Ironi Tamra
3/10/2023League #496League #496 · North - 24

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Maccabi Nujeidat Ahmed16%
×Draw28%
Maccabi Ironi Tamra56%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Maccabi Nujeidat Ahmed
0.57
Maccabi Ironi Tamra
1.35

Maccabi Ironi Tamra creates 137% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 11 away

creates per match

Maccabi Nujeidat Ahmed
0.33
Maccabi Ironi Tamra
1.36

allows per match

Maccabi Nujeidat Ahmed
1.33
Maccabi Ironi Tamra
0.82

finishing

Maccabi Nujeidat Ahmed+0.00on par
Maccabi Ironi Tamra+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

68%No
  • No68
  • Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Maccabi Nujeidat Ahmed ↓

Maccabi Ironi Tamra →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–120%
0–213%
0–36%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–02%
2–13%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (20%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Maccabi Nujeidat Ahmed or draw
44%
Maccabi Nujeidat Ahmed or Maccabi Ironi Tamra
72%
Draw or Maccabi Ironi Tamra
84%

Winning margin

Maccabi Nujeidat Ahmed wins by 2+
4%
Maccabi Ironi Tamra wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Maccabi Nujeidat Ahmed 1+ goals
43%
Maccabi Nujeidat Ahmed 2+ goals
11%
Maccabi Nujeidat Ahmed 3+ goals
2%
Maccabi Ironi Tamra 1+ goals
74%
Maccabi Ironi Tamra 2+ goals
39%
Maccabi Ironi Tamra 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Maccabi Nujeidat Ahmed (draw refunded)
22%
Maccabi Ironi Tamra (draw refunded)
78%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
21%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Maccabi Nujeidat Ahmed at home — creates 0.33, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

Maccabi Ironi Tamra away — creates 1.36, concedes 0.82 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Maccabi Nujeidat Ahmed attack 0.33 + Maccabi Ironi Tamra defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.57

Maccabi Ironi Tamra attack 1.36 + Maccabi Nujeidat Ahmed defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Maccabi Nujeidat Ahmed scores more
16%
level
28%
Maccabi Ironi Tamra scores more
56%

Maccabi Ironi Tamra at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Maccabi Ironi Tamra will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Maccabi Nujeidat Ahmed vs Maccabi Ironi Tamra

Maccabi Ironi Tamra beat Maccabi Nujeidat Ahmed 2-0 in League #496 on March 10, 2023.