Maccabi Neve Sha'anan 0–5 Ihud Bnei Kfar Kara

Maccabi Neve Sha'anan

0 – 5

Ihud Bnei Kfar Kara

12/3/2022

State Cup · 4th Round (Liga Bet)Athos Haifa Lot 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Maccabi Neve Sha'anan36%

×Draw20%

Ihud Bnei Kfar Kara45%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Maccabi Neve Sha'ananExpected goals in this matchIhud Bnei Kfar Kara

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.06

2.31

Maccabi Neve Sha'anan

2.06

Ihud Bnei Kfar Kara

2.31

Ihud Bnei Kfar Kara creates 12% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 4 away

2.13

creates per match

2.75

1.88

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Maccabi Neve Sha'anan

2.13

Ihud Bnei Kfar Kara

2.75

allows per match

Maccabi Neve Sha'anan

1.88

Ihud Bnei Kfar Kara

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Maccabi Neve Sha'anan+0.00on par

Ihud Bnei Kfar Kara+0.00on par

Total goals

Over81
Under19

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes78
No22

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Maccabi Neve Sha'anan ↓

Ihud Bnei Kfar Kara →

0–01%

0–13%

0–23%

0–33%

0–42%

1–03%

1–16%

1–27%

1–35%

1–43%

2–03%

2–16%

2–27%

2–36%

2–43%

3–02%

3–14%

3–25%

3–34%

3–42%

4–01%

4–12%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

93%7%2.5

81%19%3.5

63%37%4.5

43%57%

Double chance

Maccabi Neve Sha'anan or draw

55%

Maccabi Neve Sha'anan or Ihud Bnei Kfar Kara

80%

Draw or Ihud Bnei Kfar Kara

64%

Winning margin

Maccabi Neve Sha'anan wins by 2+

19%

Ihud Bnei Kfar Kara wins by 2+

26%

Team goals

Maccabi Neve Sha'anan 1+ goals

87%

Maccabi Neve Sha'anan 2+ goals

61%

Maccabi Neve Sha'anan 3+ goals

34%

Ihud Bnei Kfar Kara 1+ goals

90%

Ihud Bnei Kfar Kara 2+ goals

67%

Ihud Bnei Kfar Kara 3+ goals

40%

Draw no bet

Maccabi Neve Sha'anan (draw refunded)

44%

Ihud Bnei Kfar Kara (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

72%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Maccabi Neve Sha'anan at home — creates 2.13, concedes 1.88 · 8 matches

Ihud Bnei Kfar Kara away — creates 2.75, concedes 2.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Maccabi Neve Sha'anan attack 2.13 + Ihud Bnei Kfar Kara defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.06

Ihud Bnei Kfar Kara attack 2.75 + Maccabi Neve Sha'anan defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 2.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 45%?"

Maccabi Neve Sha'anan scores more

36%

level

20%

Ihud Bnei Kfar Kara scores more

45%

Ihud Bnei Kfar Kara at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Ihud Bnei Kfar Kara will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff