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Maccabi Neve Sha'anan vs Ihud Bnei Baka — State Cup 2019

Maccabi Neve Sha'anan
Maccabi Neve Sha'anan
FT
7 – 1
Ihud Bnei Baka
Ihud Bnei Baka
11/21/2024State CupState Cup · 4th Round (Liga Bet)Hadera Synthetic Training Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Maccabi Neve Sha'anan47%
×Draw19%
Ihud Bnei Baka34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Maccabi Neve Sha'anan
2.56
Ihud Bnei Baka
2.19

Maccabi Neve Sha'anan creates 17% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 4 away

creates per match

Maccabi Neve Sha'anan
2.13
Ihud Bnei Baka
2.50

allows per match

Maccabi Neve Sha'anan
1.88
Ihud Bnei Baka
3.00

finishing

Maccabi Neve Sha'anan+0.00on par
Ihud Bnei Baka+0.00on par

Total goals

85%Over
  • Over85
  • Under15

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

82%Yes
  • Yes82
  • No18

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Maccabi Neve Sha'anan ↓

Ihud Bnei Baka →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–25%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–24%
4–33%
4–42%

Most likely 2–2 (7%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
85%15%3.5
69%31%4.5
50%50%

Double chance

Maccabi Neve Sha'anan or draw
66%
Maccabi Neve Sha'anan or Ihud Bnei Baka
81%
Draw or Ihud Bnei Baka
53%

Winning margin

Maccabi Neve Sha'anan wins by 2+
28%
Ihud Bnei Baka wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Maccabi Neve Sha'anan 1+ goals
92%
Maccabi Neve Sha'anan 2+ goals
72%
Maccabi Neve Sha'anan 3+ goals
46%
Ihud Bnei Baka 1+ goals
89%
Ihud Bnei Baka 2+ goals
64%
Ihud Bnei Baka 3+ goals
37%

Draw no bet

Maccabi Neve Sha'anan (draw refunded)
58%
Ihud Bnei Baka (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
77%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Maccabi Neve Sha'anan at home — creates 2.13, concedes 1.88 · 8 matches

Ihud Bnei Baka away — creates 2.50, concedes 3.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Maccabi Neve Sha'anan attack 2.13 + Ihud Bnei Baka defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.56

Ihud Bnei Baka attack 2.50 + Maccabi Neve Sha'anan defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 2.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Maccabi Neve Sha'anan scores more
47%
level
19%
Ihud Bnei Baka scores more
34%

Maccabi Neve Sha'anan at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Maccabi Neve Sha'anan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Maccabi Neve Sha'anan vs Ihud Bnei Baka

Maccabi Neve Sha'anan beat Ihud Bnei Baka 7-1 in State Cup on November 21, 2024.

The match was played at Hadera Synthetic Training Complex in Hadera.