Maccabi Netanya 4–1 Hapoel Petah Tikva

Maccabi Netanya

FT

4 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Hapoel Petah Tikva

9/17/2023

Ligat Ha'al · Round 3Netanya Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Maccabi Netanya47%

×Draw25%

Hapoel Petah Tikva28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Maccabi NetanyaExpected goals in this matchHapoel Petah Tikva

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.62

1.20

Maccabi Netanya

1.62

Hapoel Petah Tikva

1.20

Maccabi Netanya creates 35% more chances

Season form · 122 home / 35 away

1.37

creates per match

1.09

1.30

allows per match

1.86

creates per match

Maccabi Netanya

1.37

Hapoel Petah Tikva

1.09

allows per match

Maccabi Netanya

1.30

Hapoel Petah Tikva

1.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Maccabi Netanya+0.00on par

Hapoel Petah Tikva+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Maccabi Netanya ↓

Hapoel Petah Tikva →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Maccabi Netanya or draw

72%

Maccabi Netanya or Hapoel Petah Tikva

75%

Draw or Hapoel Petah Tikva

53%

Winning margin

Maccabi Netanya wins by 2+

24%

Hapoel Petah Tikva wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Maccabi Netanya 1+ goals

80%

Maccabi Netanya 2+ goals

48%

Maccabi Netanya 3+ goals

22%

Hapoel Petah Tikva 1+ goals

70%

Hapoel Petah Tikva 2+ goals

34%

Hapoel Petah Tikva 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Maccabi Netanya (draw refunded)

62%

Hapoel Petah Tikva (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Maccabi Netanya at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.30 · 122 matches

Hapoel Petah Tikva away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.86 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Maccabi Netanya attack 1.37 + Hapoel Petah Tikva defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.62

Hapoel Petah Tikva attack 1.09 + Maccabi Netanya defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Maccabi Netanya scores more

47%

level

25%

Hapoel Petah Tikva scores more

28%

Maccabi Netanya at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Maccabi Netanya will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff