Maccabi Netanya 1–1 Hapoel Katamon: Result & Stats

Maccabi Netanya

AET

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Hapoel Katamon

3/5/2024

State Cup · Round of 16Netanya Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Maccabi Netanya52%

×Draw24%

Hapoel Katamon24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Maccabi NetanyaExpected goals in this matchHapoel Katamon

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.73

1.09

Maccabi Netanya

1.73

Hapoel Katamon

1.09

Maccabi Netanya creates 59% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 3 away

1.14

creates per match

0.33

1.86

allows per match

2.33

creates per match

Maccabi Netanya

1.14

Hapoel Katamon

0.33

allows per match

Maccabi Netanya

1.86

Hapoel Katamon

2.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Maccabi Netanya+0.00on par

Hapoel Katamon+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Maccabi Netanya ↓

Hapoel Katamon →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Maccabi Netanya or draw

76%

Maccabi Netanya or Hapoel Katamon

76%

Draw or Hapoel Katamon

48%

Winning margin

Maccabi Netanya wins by 2+

29%

Hapoel Katamon wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Maccabi Netanya 1+ goals

82%

Maccabi Netanya 2+ goals

52%

Maccabi Netanya 3+ goals

25%

Hapoel Katamon 1+ goals

66%

Hapoel Katamon 2+ goals

30%

Hapoel Katamon 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Maccabi Netanya (draw refunded)

69%

Hapoel Katamon (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Maccabi Netanya at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.86 · 7 matches

Hapoel Katamon away — creates 0.33, concedes 2.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Maccabi Netanya attack 1.14 + Hapoel Katamon defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 1.73

Hapoel Katamon attack 0.33 + Maccabi Netanya defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Maccabi Netanya scores more

52%

level

24%

Hapoel Katamon scores more

24%

Maccabi Netanya at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Maccabi Netanya will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff