Hapoel Katamon 2–3 Maccabi Netanya: Result & Stats

Hapoel Katamon

FT

2 – 3

HT: 1 – 2

Maccabi Netanya

11/2/2024

Ligat Ha'al · Round 9Teddi Malcha Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 84+ matches

Hapoel Katamon41%

×Draw26%

Maccabi Netanya33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hapoel KatamonExpected goals in this matchMaccabi Netanya

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.37

1.20

Hapoel Katamon

1.37

Maccabi Netanya

1.20

Hapoel Katamon creates 14% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 118 away

1.13

creates per match

1.25

1.15

allows per match

1.61

creates per match

Hapoel Katamon

1.13

Maccabi Netanya

1.25

allows per match

Hapoel Katamon

1.15

Maccabi Netanya

1.61

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hapoel Katamon+0.00on par

Maccabi Netanya+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hapoel Katamon ↓

Maccabi Netanya →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

47%53%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Hapoel Katamon or draw

67%

Hapoel Katamon or Maccabi Netanya

74%

Draw or Maccabi Netanya

59%

Winning margin

Hapoel Katamon wins by 2+

19%

Maccabi Netanya wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Hapoel Katamon 1+ goals

75%

Hapoel Katamon 2+ goals

40%

Hapoel Katamon 3+ goals

16%

Maccabi Netanya 1+ goals

70%

Maccabi Netanya 2+ goals

34%

Maccabi Netanya 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Hapoel Katamon (draw refunded)

55%

Maccabi Netanya (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hapoel Katamon at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.15 · 84 matches

Maccabi Netanya away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.61 · 118 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hapoel Katamon attack 1.13 + Maccabi Netanya defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.37

Maccabi Netanya attack 1.25 + Hapoel Katamon defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Hapoel Katamon scores more

41%

level

26%

Maccabi Netanya scores more

33%

Hapoel Katamon at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Hapoel Katamon will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff