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Maccabi Netanya vs Hapoel Katamon — Ligat Ha'al 2019

Maccabi Netanya
Maccabi Netanya
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Hapoel Katamon
Hapoel Katamon
1/16/2024Ligat Ha'alLigat Ha'al · Round 17Netanya Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 84+ matches

Maccabi Netanya41%
×Draw27%
Hapoel Katamon31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Maccabi Netanya
1.34
Hapoel Katamon
1.13

Maccabi Netanya creates 19% more chances

Season form · 122 home / 84 away

creates per match

Maccabi Netanya
1.37
Hapoel Katamon
0.95

allows per match

Maccabi Netanya
1.30
Hapoel Katamon
1.31

finishing

Maccabi Netanya+0.00on par
Hapoel Katamon+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Maccabi Netanya ↓

Hapoel Katamon →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Maccabi Netanya or draw
69%
Maccabi Netanya or Hapoel Katamon
73%
Draw or Hapoel Katamon
59%

Winning margin

Maccabi Netanya wins by 2+
19%
Hapoel Katamon wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Maccabi Netanya 1+ goals
74%
Maccabi Netanya 2+ goals
39%
Maccabi Netanya 3+ goals
15%
Hapoel Katamon 1+ goals
68%
Hapoel Katamon 2+ goals
31%
Hapoel Katamon 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Maccabi Netanya (draw refunded)
57%
Hapoel Katamon (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Maccabi Netanya at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.30 · 122 matches

Hapoel Katamon away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.31 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Maccabi Netanya attack 1.37 + Hapoel Katamon defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.34

Hapoel Katamon attack 0.95 + Maccabi Netanya defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Maccabi Netanya scores more
41%
level
27%
Hapoel Katamon scores more
31%

Maccabi Netanya at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Maccabi Netanya will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligat Ha'al: Maccabi Netanya 2–1 Hapoel Katamon

Maccabi Netanya beat Hapoel Katamon 2-1 in Ligat Ha'al on January 16, 2024.

The match was played at Netanya Stadium in Netanya.