Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Maccabi Kiryat Gat vs Kfar Saba 1928 — League #496 2026

Maccabi Kiryat Gat
Maccabi Kiryat Gat
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Kfar Saba 1928
Kfar Saba 1928
E. B. Menashe 90'
G. Hadad 21'
G. Shalhevet 45'
L. Shabat 40'
10/10/2025League #496League #496 · South - 5

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Maccabi Kiryat Gat25%
×Draw24%
Kfar Saba 192851%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Maccabi Kiryat Gat
1.10
Kfar Saba 1928
1.68

Kfar Saba 1928 creates 53% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 7 away

creates per match

Maccabi Kiryat Gat
1.50
Kfar Saba 1928
0.86

allows per match

Maccabi Kiryat Gat
2.50
Kfar Saba 1928
0.71

finishing

Maccabi Kiryat Gat+0.00on par
Kfar Saba 1928+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Maccabi Kiryat Gat ↓

Kfar Saba 1928 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–210%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Maccabi Kiryat Gat or draw
49%
Maccabi Kiryat Gat or Kfar Saba 1928
76%
Draw or Kfar Saba 1928
75%

Winning margin

Maccabi Kiryat Gat wins by 2+
9%
Kfar Saba 1928 wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Maccabi Kiryat Gat 1+ goals
67%
Maccabi Kiryat Gat 2+ goals
30%
Maccabi Kiryat Gat 3+ goals
10%
Kfar Saba 1928 1+ goals
81%
Kfar Saba 1928 2+ goals
50%
Kfar Saba 1928 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Maccabi Kiryat Gat (draw refunded)
33%
Kfar Saba 1928 (draw refunded)
67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Maccabi Kiryat Gat at home — creates 1.50, concedes 2.50 · 4 matches

Kfar Saba 1928 away — creates 0.86, concedes 0.71 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Maccabi Kiryat Gat attack 1.50 + Kfar Saba 1928 defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 1.10

Kfar Saba 1928 attack 0.86 + Maccabi Kiryat Gat defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 1.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Maccabi Kiryat Gat scores more
25%
level
24%
Kfar Saba 1928 scores more
51%

Kfar Saba 1928 at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Kfar Saba 1928 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

21'
G. Hadad
24'
O. Ifrah
24'
O. Ifrah
40'
L. Shabat
45'
G. Shalhevet
90+7'
90'
E. B. Menashe

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #496: Maccabi Kiryat Gat 2–2 Kfar Saba 1928

Maccabi Kiryat Gat and Kfar Saba 1928 drew 2-2 in League #496 on October 10, 2025.

Goals: G. Hadad (21'), L. Shabat (40'), G. Shalhevet (45'), E. B. Menashe (90').