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Maccabi Kiryat Gat vs Dimona — State Cup 2019

Maccabi Kiryat Gat
Maccabi Kiryat Gat
CANC
17:00
Dimona
Dimona
12/25/2023State CupState Cup · 6th RoundKiryat Gat Synthetic Sports Ground

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Maccabi Kiryat Gat45%
×Draw23%
Dimona32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Maccabi Kiryat Gat
1.85
Dimona
1.54

Maccabi Kiryat Gat creates 20% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 8 away

creates per match

Maccabi Kiryat Gat
2.33
Dimona
1.75

allows per match

Maccabi Kiryat Gat
1.33
Dimona
1.38

finishing

Maccabi Kiryat Gat+0.00on par
Dimona+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Maccabi Kiryat Gat ↓

Dimona →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Maccabi Kiryat Gat or draw
68%
Maccabi Kiryat Gat or Dimona
77%
Draw or Dimona
55%

Winning margin

Maccabi Kiryat Gat wins by 2+
25%
Dimona wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Maccabi Kiryat Gat 1+ goals
84%
Maccabi Kiryat Gat 2+ goals
55%
Maccabi Kiryat Gat 3+ goals
28%
Dimona 1+ goals
79%
Dimona 2+ goals
45%
Dimona 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Maccabi Kiryat Gat (draw refunded)
58%
Dimona (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Maccabi Kiryat Gat at home — creates 2.33, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

Dimona away — creates 1.75, concedes 1.38 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Maccabi Kiryat Gat attack 2.33 + Dimona defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.85

Dimona attack 1.75 + Maccabi Kiryat Gat defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Maccabi Kiryat Gat scores more
45%
level
23%
Dimona scores more
32%

Maccabi Kiryat Gat at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Maccabi Kiryat Gat will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Maccabi Kiryat Gat vs Dimona — Match Preview

Maccabi Kiryat Gat face Dimona on December 25, 2023 in this State Cup fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Maccabi Kiryat Gat host Dimona at Kiryat Gat Synthetic Sports Ground.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.