Maccabi Kiryat Ata 1–3 Robi Shapira: Result & Stats

Maccabi Kiryat Ata

FT

1 – 3

Robi Shapira

10/18/2019

League #496 · North - 6

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Maccabi Kiryat Ata21%

×Draw26%

Robi Shapira53%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Maccabi Kiryat AtaExpected goals in this matchRobi Shapira

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.82

1.48

Maccabi Kiryat Ata

0.82

Robi Shapira

1.48

Robi Shapira creates 80% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 10 away

0.75

creates per match

1.20

1.75

allows per match

0.90

creates per match

Maccabi Kiryat Ata

0.75

Robi Shapira

1.20

allows per match

Maccabi Kiryat Ata

1.75

Robi Shapira

0.90

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Maccabi Kiryat Ata+0.00on par

Robi Shapira+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Maccabi Kiryat Ata ↓

Robi Shapira →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–115%

0–211%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–03%

2–15%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Maccabi Kiryat Ata or draw

47%

Maccabi Kiryat Ata or Robi Shapira

74%

Draw or Robi Shapira

79%

Winning margin

Maccabi Kiryat Ata wins by 2+

6%

Robi Shapira wins by 2+

27%

Team goals

Maccabi Kiryat Ata 1+ goals

56%

Maccabi Kiryat Ata 2+ goals

20%

Maccabi Kiryat Ata 3+ goals

5%

Robi Shapira 1+ goals

77%

Robi Shapira 2+ goals

43%

Robi Shapira 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Maccabi Kiryat Ata (draw refunded)

28%

Robi Shapira (draw refunded)

72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Maccabi Kiryat Ata at home — creates 0.75, concedes 1.75 · 4 matches

Robi Shapira away — creates 1.20, concedes 0.90 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Maccabi Kiryat Ata attack 0.75 + Robi Shapira defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.82

Robi Shapira attack 1.20 + Maccabi Kiryat Ata defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Maccabi Kiryat Ata scores more

21%

level

26%

Robi Shapira scores more

53%

Robi Shapira at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Robi Shapira will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff